KMD BRANDS LIMITED (KMD)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

24/09/2026

1

Buy

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FY26 underlying earnings (EBITDA) for KMD Brands (July year-end) more than doubled to NZ$42m, supported by 11% Kathmandu sales growth, improved gross margins and NZ$8m of tariff refunds, UBS explains.

Higher operating costs prompt UBS to cut its FY27–FY29 earnings forecasts by -20%–29%.

The broker forecasts FY27 earnings of NZ$54m, near the top of the NZ$52m–NZ$55m guidance range but expects limited operating leverage.

It is felt the balance sheet has been de-risked following the equity raising. The company has received several preliminary takeover approaches.

UBS lowers its target to NZ$2.55 from NZ$3.50 and retains its Buy rating, mainly on valuation grounds.

FORECAST
UBS forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 9.26 cents.
UBS forecasts a full year FY28 dividend of 6.73 cents and EPS of 21.88 cents.

27/07/2026

3

Neutral

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Jarden retains a Neutral rating for KMD Brands with its target price reduced to NZ$2.05 from a 25:1 share consolidation-adjusted NZ$3.25 following a mixed trading update.

Management guided to an FY26 sales decline of -5% year-on-year, alongside pre-IFRS EBITDA between NZ$38m and NZ$41m, representing a 3.8% margin and a 200bps margin expansion.

Net debt projections expanded to between NZ$63m and NZ$66m, reflecting a NZ$12m year-on-year increase driven by working capital requirements despite a recent equity raise.

Whilst Kathmandu brand momentum remains positive, slowing growth at Rip Curl and unfavourable Australian weather conditions continue to weigh on top-line performance, commentary highlights.

The analyst lowers earnings forecasts by -35%, noting the margin recovery thesis remains intact despite broader operational headwinds.