KMD BRANDS LIMITED (KMD)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

07/04/2026

1

Upgrade to Buy from Neutral

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UBS upgrades KMD Brands to Buy from Neutral post the 1H26 earnings (EBITDA) result, which came in slightly higher than management's guidance range of NZ$8m-NZ$12m, as well as a deeply discounted circa NZ$65m equity raising.

Earnings came in 19% better than the analyst's forecasts and reflected a sales turnaround for Kathmandu, up 12% y/y and over 200bps gross margin recovery versus 2H25. A turnaround in Rip Curl is not expected until FY27, though there are signs of stabilisation in wholesale.

Earnings forecasts are lowered on average by around -4% for FY26-FY28, with EPS estimates over the same period down circa -63% due to the equity issue.

With debt reduction and recapitalisation there is scope for a re-rating into FY27 as the company moves to a turnaround from survival, UBS explains. Target price is lowered by -50% to NZ$0.14 per share from NZ$0.28.

FORECAST
UBS forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.
UBS forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.89 cents.

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01/10/2025

3

Hold

$0.25

303.23%

KMD Brands has outlined its “Next Level” turnaround strategy. By FY28, management is targeting a 60% gross margin, operating expenses below 50% of sales, earnings (EBITDA) margins above 10%, and net working capital below 16%.

Management has also initiated a -$25m cost reset to ease cost-of-doing-business (CODB) pressures.

FY25 trading remained volatile, observes the analyst, though Kathmandu sales in early FY26 have improved, with gross profit dollars up 11% in the first seven weeks. Rip Curl delivered $550m in sales but saw margin compression, while Oboz remains loss-making.

Canaccord maintains a Hold rating, cutting its target price to 25c from 27c pending evidence of stronger profitability.

FORECAST
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus -1.42 cents.
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.80 cents and EPS of 0.89 cents.