Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Oct 28, 2022

This story features AUSTRALIAN CLINICAL LABS LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ACL

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

ACL   ASX   BHP   BPT   CAU   CGF   COE   EVN   EVT   IKE   JBH   MP1   NST   PMV   PPT   WHC  

ACL    AUSTRALIAN CLINICAL LABS LIMITED

Healthcare services – Overnight Price: $3.36

Goldman Sachs rates ((ACL)) as Buy (1) –

While Australian Clinical Labs achieved the run-rate in the 1Q required to reach Goldman Sachs' FY23 expectations, covid PCR testing slowed sharply throughout the quarter.

Excluding covid testing, 1Q organic base revenue grew at more than 5% year-on-year, which the broker suggests is modestly ahead of market expectations. Management believes industry base volumes will continue to progressively recover into 2023.

The analyst prefers Buy-rated Australian Clinical Labs over Neutral-rated Healius ((HLS)) and Sonic Healthcare ((SHL)), which has a Sell rating. The $5.70 target price is unchanged.

This report was published on October 20, 2022.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $3.36 Difference: $2.34
If ACL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 70% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 34.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.88.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.00.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ASX    ASX LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $66.82

Jarden rates ((ASX)) as Underweight (4) –

Daily average futures volumes in September were flat on the previous corresponding period, with longer term contract volumes falling by -9%. Cash equity turnover was also -10% weaker, driven mostly by reduced market turnover, explains Jarden.

Capital raisings also deteriorated, with IPO activity still particularly weak, notes the analyst.

Jarden keeps its Underweight rating for the ASX on valuation and because of risks surrounding the CHESS replacement project. The target falls to $70.60 from $73.30.

This report was published on October 12, 2022.

Target price is $70.60 Current Price is $66.82 Difference: $3.78
If ASX meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $79.79, suggesting upside of 19.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 246.30 cents and EPS of 273.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 273.0, implying annual growth of 3.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 246.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.5.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 263.00 cents and EPS of 292.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 285.1, implying annual growth of 4.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 257.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BHP    BHP GROUP LIMITED

Bulks – Overnight Price: $39.49

Goldman Sachs rates ((BHP)) as Buy (1) –

BHP Group's 1Q result revealed lower grades and throughput at both Escondida and Spence in Chile, and a -24% decline in met coal production in Queensland from wet weather and ongoing labour shortages.

As a result, the 1Q was weaker than Goldman Sachs expected, with an -11% quarter-on-quarter decrease in copper production. Pilbara iron ore production increased by 1% to 72.1Mt versus the consensus estimate for 71.5Mt.

Management's FY23 production and cost guidance for all commodities remains unchanged.

The broker retains its Buy rating and reduces its target to $42.50 from $43.50.

This report was published on October 20, 2022.

Target price is $42.50 Current Price is $39.49 Difference: $3.01
If BHP meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $42.12, suggesting upside of 6.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 232.53 cents and EPS of 357.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 453.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 330.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.7.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 189.99 cents and EPS of 345.95 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 420.7, implying annual growth of -7.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 307.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BPT    BEACH ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $1.61

Bell Potter rates ((BPT)) as Buy (1) –

Bell Potter assesses the Q1 production of 5.3MMboe as an -8% fall on the previous quarter with Western Flank missing on expectations because of floods and Victorian Otways' field declining at a higher rate.

A cash position of $38m and available liquidity of $638m at quarter end is viewed by Bell Potter as sufficient to fund and fulfill the energy production targets.

Earnings forecasts are updated by -1% for FY23 and 3% in FY24 for changes in the production, costs and foreign exchange, notes the broker.

The target price is lowered to $2.20 from $2.30. A Buy rating is retained and the valuation is considered appealing relative to other stocks in the sector.

This report was published on October 20, 2022.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.61 Difference: $0.59
If BPT meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.82, suggesting upside of 13.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.8, implying annual growth of 12.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.5.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.8, implying annual growth of 12.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CAU    CRONOS AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $0.93

Bell Potter rates ((CAU)) as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) –

Bell Potter highlights CanView  reported record sales for Q1 of $26.9m, up 29% on the previous quarter for Cronos Australia.

The company experienced growth across all the metrics, including prescriber accounts and pharmacy accounts which grew 11% and 8% respectively and registered patients increased to 7337, up 6%.

Although revenue per unit decreased noted Bell Potter. Revenue forecasts are upgraded 15% for FY23, resulting in a 24% increase in EPS forecast for FY23 and an 18% increase in FY24.

The price target is raised to $0.95 from $0.60, and the rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy.

This report was published on October 20, 2022.

Target price is $0.95 Current Price is $0.93 Difference: $0.02
If CAU meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 1.60 cents and EPS of 2.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.77.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 3.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.57.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CGF    CHALLENGER LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $6.84

Jarden rates ((CGF)) as Overweight (2) –

Significantly higher annuity rates and elevated equity market volatility are leading to increased 1Q industry website traffic for annuities, according to Jarden. As a result, there's upside risk to the broker's forecast of 20% retail annuity sales growth in the 1H for Challenger.

The company's annuity rates are now at their highest level in at least eight years with three year term annuity rates of 4.8%.

The analyst sees scope for a shift to longer duration annuities, which would reduce maturity rates and help accelerate annuity book growth post FY23.

The Overweight rating and $6.75 target are unchanged.

This report was published on October 12, 2022.

Target price is $6.75 Current Price is $6.84 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If CGF meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $6.87, suggesting upside of 0.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 24.70 cents and EPS of 48.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.1, implying annual growth of 20.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 28.30 cents and EPS of 55.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.24.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.6, implying annual growth of 12.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

COE    COOPER ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $0.22

Bell Potter rates ((COE)) as Buy (1) –

Cooper Energy reported Q1 production of 0.99MMboe and revenue of $55.4m which met Bell Potter's expectations.

A robust East Coast gas market alongside the conventional assets held by Cooper Energy are expected to support the outlook for the stock.

Management provided no guidance update and a search for a new Managing Director, post the retirement of David Maxwell is in train.

Bell Potter makes no substantial adjustments to earnings forecasts and tweaks the target to $0.29 from $0.28. A Buy rating is retained.

This report was published on October 20, 2022.

Target price is $0.29 Current Price is $0.22 Difference: $0.073
If COE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.28, suggesting upside of 27.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.9.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.40 cents and EPS of 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.4, implying annual growth of 9.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EVN    EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $2.10

JP Morgan rates ((EVN)) as Neutral (3) –

Following Q1 results for Evolution Mining, JP Morgan remains wary of some final operational hurdles ahead of any turnaround. A Neutral rating is maintained, while the target is lowered to $2.00 from $2.20.

Management guidance for FY23 is unchanged.

Maintenance issues at the Cowral operations impacted Q1 volumes/costs and the broker sees upside risk for group all-in sustaining costs (AISC), given lower copper pricing.

While the balance sheet will support FY23 capex requirements, the analyst is uncertain about the ability to pay dividends.

This report was published on October 21, 2022.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $2.10 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the JP Morgan target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.55, suggesting upside of 21.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

JP Morgan forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.4, implying annual growth of -18.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6.

Forecast for FY24:

JP Morgan forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.0, implying annual growth of 25.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EVT    EVENT HOSPITALITY AND ENTERTAINMENT LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $14.30

JP Morgan rates ((EVT)) as Neutral (3) –

JP Morgan assesses a strong Q1 business update for Event Hospitality & Entertainment, with earnings (EBITDA) rising by 23% (on flat revenue) on the previous corresponding period. The target rises to $15.50 from $15.00.

As a result of the strong result and a recent divestment strategy for non-core assets, notes the analyst, a 12cps special dividend was declared. It's thought regular dividend payments will resume at the next result.

The broker retains a Neutral rating as the next stage in the revenue recovery is heavily dependent on movie releases and international arrivals. This would enable the Entertainment and Hotels divisions to recover to pre-covid levels, explains JP Morgan.

This report was published on October 21, 2022.

Target price is $15.50 Current Price is $14.30 Difference: $1.2
If EVT meets the JP Morgan target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

JP Morgan forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 36.00 cents and EPS of 48.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.79.

Forecast for FY24:

JP Morgan forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 32.00 cents and EPS of 65.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IKE    IKEGPS GROUP LIMITED

Hardware & Equipment – Overnight Price: $0.83

Bell Potter rates ((IKE)) as Buy (1) –

Bell Potter describes ikeGPS Group as "Ticking boxes" in regard to the strong 1H23 trading update.

Revenue grew 170% over the period and exceeded management's top end guidance. Of note the group turned cash flow positive ($1.1m), ahead of the analyst's forecasts.

Bell Potter adjusts earnings forecasts by 1.7% for FY23 and 2.6% for FY24 to account for the improved costs controls.

A Buy rating is maintained and the target is raised to $1.21 from $1.02.

This report was published on October 20, 2022.

Target price is $1.21 Current Price is $0.83 Difference: $0.38
If IKE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.93 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 43.01.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.55 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 150.64.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JBH    JB HI-FI LIMITED

Consumer Electronics – Overnight Price: $42.95

Jarden rates ((JBH)) as Underweight (4) –

Jarden remains cautious on the consumer and sees a growing risk into Christmas, particularly given the material hit to household cashflow from the lagged effect of interest rate rises.

Along with growing moat companies and those with pricing power, the analysts prefer companies with exposure to youth consumers that can spend in the current environment.

For JB Hi-Fi, the broker retains an Underweight rating and sets a $38.80 target price, without providing additional commentary. 

This report was published on October 12, 2022.

Target price is $38.80 Current Price is $42.95 Difference: minus $4.15 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $47.31, suggesting upside of 10.2%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 369.0, implying annual growth of -23.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 246.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6.

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 333.6, implying annual growth of -9.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 224.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MP1    MEGAPORT LIMITED

Cloud services – Overnight Price: $6.21

Goldman Sachs rates ((MP1)) as Buy (1) –

Following Megaport's Q1 results, Goldman Sachs lowers its target by -8% to $9.50 due to lower APAC revenues (port numbers), offset by favourable currency movements.

Higher capex and delays in free cash flows also reduced the target, once the analyst adopted a lower multiple in reaction.

The broker feels a material share price fall in response to the result more than reflects the risks from higher capex, while ignoring the solid trends in annual recurring revenue and a pleasing performance for the Megaport Virtual Edge product.

The Buy rating is unchanged.

This report was published on October 20, 2022.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $6.21 Difference: $3.29
If MP1 meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.23, suggesting upside of 64.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 14.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 44.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -16.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 88.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -4.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NST    NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $8.93

JP Morgan rates ((NST)) as Overweight (1) –

JP Morgan retains its $9.25 target for Northern Star Resources following September quarter results, which revealed a -7% miss versus the broker's estimate for production.

All-in sustaining costs (AISC) were also a -4% miss on lower volumes due to ramp-ups at Pogo and Thunderbox, explains the analyst. Management retained FY23 guidance.

The Overweight rating is retained with Northern Star Resources the most preferred exposure from JP Morgan's gold coverage due to the lowest valuation, highest FY23 dividend yield and the most robust balance sheet.

This report was published on October 20, 2022.

Target price is $9.25 Current Price is $8.93 Difference: $0.32
If NST meets the JP Morgan target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.93, suggesting upside of 11.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

JP Morgan forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.3, implying annual growth of -31.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.3.

Forecast for FY24:

JP Morgan forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 32.00 cents and EPS of 42.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.0, implying annual growth of 50.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.5.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PMV    PREMIER INVESTMENTS LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear – Overnight Price: $24.08

Jarden rates ((PMV)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden remain cautious on the consumer and sees a growing risk into Christmas, particularly given the material hit to household cashflow from the lagged effect of interest rate rises.

Along with growing moat companies and those with pricing power, Jarden prefers companies like Premier Investments, with exposure to youth consumers that can spend in the current environment.

The broker maintains its Overweight rating and sets a $23.00 target price.

This report was published on October 12, 2022.

Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $24.08 Difference: minus $1.08 (current price is over target).
If PMV meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $25.61, suggesting upside of 6.3%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 139.3, implying annual growth of -22.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 100.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3.

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 142.5, implying annual growth of 2.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 106.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PPT    PERPETUAL LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $24.49

Bell Potter rates ((PPT)) as Buy (1) –

Perpetual provided a Q1 trading update which showed a -1% decline in AUM to $89.8bn, notes Bell Potter.

The weaker Australian dollar provided a $5bn positive foreign currency move, and offset negative impacts of overseas markets.

The ESG Trillium funds experienced $0.5bn inflows.

Bell Potter adjusts earnings forecasts by -3.4% and -3.5% for FY23 and FY24, although the Pendal Group ((PDL)) acquisition is not included.

The Buy rating remains unchanged and the target is lowered to $38.73 from $39.80.

This report was published on October 20, 2022.

Target price is $38.73 Current Price is $24.49 Difference: $14.24
If PPT meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 58% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $30.44, suggesting upside of 24.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 203.00 cents and EPS of 229.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 205.5, implying annual growth of 14.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 168.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 210.00 cents and EPS of 268.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 230.5, implying annual growth of 12.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 186.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WHC    WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED

Coal – Overnight Price: $10.36

Bell Potter rates ((WHC)) as Buy (1) –

Bell Potter highlights Whitehaven Coal reported a -30% decline in coal production and sales in Q1 on the previous quarter.

Wet weather impacted on the company's open pit mines and labour problems, as well as infrastructure outages exacerbated the impact on results.

Management maintained FY23 guidance, subject to weather and labour constraints, and there are no changes to Bell Potter's earnings forecasts.

Buy rating is retained and the target is raised to $10.29 from $10.20.

This report was published on October 20, 2022.

Target price is $10.29 Current Price is $10.36 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If WHC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $11.44, suggesting upside of 15.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 175.00 cents and EPS of 311.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 16.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 3.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 397.1, implying annual growth of 101.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 90.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 2.5.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 111.00 cents and EPS of 169.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 10.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 245.4, implying annual growth of -38.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 103.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 10.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 4.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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