Technicals | Mar 16 2023
Bottom Line 15/03/23
15/3:
Daily Trend: Up
Weekly Trend: Up
Monthly Trend: Up
Support Levels: $1800 / $1750 / $1650
Resistance Levels: $1978 / $2060 / $2213 (all-time high) (April 2023 contract)
Note: All prices US$/oz Comex futures
Technical Discussion
Reasons to be bullish longer-term:
→ Multi-year triple three-corrective pattern looks to have finally completed back in November
→ bullish decade-long cup and handle pattern now well evolved on the longer-term charts and in play
→ support zone circa $1800-$1750 needs to hold
We remain bullish across all time frames now, yet from a short to medium-term perspective we will be reverting back to neutral if price from here dips back below $1810.80. Even though from a pricing perspective a move slightly below here would be acceptable, from a timing perspective it won’t be acceptable as timing symmetry will be lost. Successful moves generally come when time and price come together nicely symmetry-wise, so the ideal scenario from here is that $1810.80 is not revisited.
The bigger picture outlook though is still bullish as we highlighted in our video tonight. With the larger bowl-shape formation now looking well evolved and the handle aspect to this larger pattern potentially completed via a complex triple three corrective pattern drawing to a close at the Wave-Z low on our chart circa $1649.90. The larger multi-year pattern triggers above $2213.00 and has a solid target attached to it above $3000.00 USD. If we can remain in our trade for the full run north it will certainly be some achievement.
More immediately the recent minor dip has found support at the 200-Day MA which has confluence to the 50.0% pullback zone. And since then the bounce has been impressive with ultra-high volume being in play on a couple of those sessions. It’s only very early days of course with the recent moves not only being technically driven yet also fundamentally driven, with the banking risks that have recently surfaced witnessing a flight to precious metals. So now it’s just a matter of seeing if the recent bullish moves are going to be able to stick and trigger a more sustained move north as part of an impulsive Wave-3 or C. These waves are generally extended as well so resistance at the all-time highs circa $2213.00 should be easily achieved as part of the next upcycle. Still plenty of work to do here for our bigger-picture bullish analysis to play out, so happy to take it one step at a time for now.
Trading Strategy
We remain long at $1739.00 with stops sitting in some small profits circa $1750.00 (adjusted to the new contract). If we can witness price action lock in a higher swing low pattern trigger from here above $1975.20 then we will immediately raise our stop up into further profits circa $1810.00. Stay patient for now and respect the stop until we get the official trigger.
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