Technicals | Sep 11 2024
Earlier today, Tony Sycamore, Market Analyst, IG updated his views and thoughts on financial markets, including the technical analysis updates below.
All material has been re-published with permission and does not by association represent FNArena’s views (we have none, we simply report).
First Up, Nasdaq100
Following the Nasdaq100’s close below 19,400 on Thursday last week, we moved to a tactical short bias.
The basis for the short recommendation was based on the idea the correction from the 20,690 high to the August 17453 low is missing a leg lower towards the 18,000/17,700 support area coming from the 200-day moving average and uptrend support from the December 10,671 low.
There is a possibility of downside overshoot towards support at 17,000 a wave equality target. We will remain with the tactical short view unless the Nasdaq100 sees a sustained break above last week’s swing high of 19,938.
Australia: ASX200
Last Wednesday’s sharp sell-off raised the possibility the ASX200 carved out a double top at August’s 8148 high and September’s 8116 high.
Based on this possibility, we expect a test of initial support at 7850 before medium-term support at 7710/90, which includes the 200-day moving average and trend channel support.
Aware that should the ASX200 see a sustained break above 8150, it would negate the downside risks and warn that the ASX200’s grind higher has resumed towards 8230/50ish.
Crude Oil
WTI Crude Oil finished at US$65.75/bbl (-4.31%), its lowest close since May 2023, after OPEC-Plus cut its demand forecasts for 2024 and 2025, and Chinese trade data yesterday showed the Chinese domestic economy remains subdued.
While crude oil is oversold in the short term, it needs to reclaim resistance at US$72.00/50 to negate the risks of a deeper decline into the low US$60s.
Gold
Gold finished higher overnight at US$2516/oz (+0.41%), consolidating below its US$2531 record highs, ahead of today’s Presidential debate and tonight’s US CPI release.
Provided gold remains above support at US$2470ish, it can extend gains towards US$2550 in the sessions ahead. Aware that a sustained break of support at US$2470 would warn that gold has put in place a medium-term high at US$2531 and of a deeper pullback towards US$2400/oz.
Technical limitations
If you are reading this story through a third party distribution channel and you cannot see charts included, we apologise, but technical limitations are to blame.
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