Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Apr 20, 2025

Daily Market Reports | 10:15 AM

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

29M   AEL   AGL   ALD   AUB   BPT   BRE   BRG   CGF   CKF   CPU   EBR   EVN   GMD   HGO   HUB (3)   IAG   IGO   KAR   LTR   MAC   MEI (2)   MLX   MPL   NEU (2)   NIC   NWC   ORG   PLS   PLY   PSC   QBE   SDF   SFR   STO   STX   SUN   VEA   WDS  

ALD    AMPOL LIMITED

Consumer Products & Services - Overnight Price: $22.24

Goldman Sachs rates ((ALD)) as Buy (1) -

Goldman Sachs notes the significant volatility across energy stocks on global tariff-related news and the fall in Brent crude price below US$60/bbl for the first time since 2021.

The analysts initially trimmed global oil demand forecasts and consequently cut Brent forecast to US$66/bbl in 2025 and US$58/bbl in 2026. This was revised on news of a 90-day pause to elevated US tariffs. with a forecast of US$65/bbl for 2025 and US$70/bbl for 2026.

The broker marked-to-market commodity prices and forex, lowered near-term oil price and refining margin forecasts, and rolled forward valuation. This resulted in a -1-4% downgrade in target price for most energy stocks.

The broker expects Ampol's Lyntton refining margin in the March quarter was US$7.2/bbl based on -17% q/q lower input due to the 10-day shutdown on account of Cyclone Alfred.

Buy. Target cut to $30.60 from $31.30.

This report was published on April 10, 2025.

Target price is $30.60 Current Price is $22.24 Difference: $8.36
If ALD meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $29.40, suggesting upside of 32.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 37.00 cents and EPS of 73.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 153.7, implying annual growth of 199.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 96.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 143.00 cents and EPS of 186.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 207.3, implying annual growth of 34.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 159.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BRG    BREVILLE GROUP LIMITED

Household & Personal Products - Overnight Price: $27.21

Petra Capital rates ((BRG)) as Upgrade to Hold from Sell (3) -

Petra Capital notes the US-China tariff escalation has created uncertainty for Breville Group's earnings, but its current project to shift 120v production out of China would offset most of the impact from 2H26/FY27.

Currently, 40% of group purchases are exposed to US-China tariffs, and the goal is to cut this to 10% by the end of 1H26 and further in the 2H. Target locations are Mexico (tariff-exempt), Indonesia and Cambodia, which have shown willingness for negotiations. 

All in all, the broker's base case scenario shows FY26 EPS estimate falling -11.3%.

Target cut to $28.50 from $30.00. Rating upgraded to Hold from Sell on share price retreat.

This report was published on April 15, 2025.

Target price is $28.50 Current Price is $27.21 Difference: $1.29
If BRG meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $37.64, suggesting upside of 38.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 35.70 cents and EPS of 91.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 92.8, implying annual growth of 12.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.3.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 39.60 cents and EPS of 93.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 104.6, implying annual growth of 12.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BRG    BREVILLE GROUP LIMITED

Household & Personal Products - Overnight Price: $27.21

Petra Capital rates ((BRG)) as Upgrade to Hold from Sell (3) -

Petra Capital notes the US-China tariff escalation has created uncertainty for Breville Group's earnings, but its current project to shift 120v production out of China would offset most of the impact from 2H26/FY27.

Currently, 40% of group purchases are exposed to US-China tariffs, and the goal is to cut this to 10% by the end of 1H26 and further in the 2H. Target locations are Mexico (tariff-exempt), Indonesia and Cambodia, which have shown willingness for negotiations. 

All in all, the broker's base case scenario shows FY26 EPS estimate falling -11.3%.

Target cut to $28.50 from $30.00. Rating upgraded to Hold from Sell on share price retreat.

This report was published on April 15, 2025.

Target price is $28.50 Current Price is $27.21 Difference: $1.29
If BRG meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $37.64, suggesting upside of 38.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 35.70 cents and EPS of 91.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 92.8, implying annual growth of 12.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.3.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 39.60 cents and EPS of 93.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 104.6, implying annual growth of 12.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BRG    BREVILLE GROUP LIMITED

Household & Personal Products - Overnight Price: $27.21

Petra Capital rates ((BRG)) as Upgrade to Hold from Sell (3) -

Petra Capital notes the US-China tariff escalation has created uncertainty for Breville Group's earnings, but its current project to shift 120v production out of China would offset most of the impact from 2H26/FY27.

Currently, 40% of group purchases are exposed to US-China tariffs, and the goal is to cut this to 10% by the end of 1H26 and further in the 2H. Target locations are Mexico (tariff-exempt), Indonesia and Cambodia, which have shown willingness for negotiations. 

All in all, the broker's base case scenario shows FY26 EPS estimate falling -11.3%.

Target cut to $28.50 from $30.00. Rating upgraded to Hold from Sell on share price retreat.

This report was published on April 15, 2025.

Target price is $28.50 Current Price is $27.21 Difference: $1.29
If BRG meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $37.64, suggesting upside of 38.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 35.70 cents and EPS of 91.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 92.8, implying annual growth of 12.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.3.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 39.60 cents and EPS of 93.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 104.6, implying annual growth of 12.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HGO    HILLGROVE RESOURCES LIMITED

Copper - Overnight Price: $0.03

Canaccord Genuity rates ((HGO)) as Speculative Buy (1) -

Canaccord Genuity reviews fundamentals for base metals and EV materials producers, and updates forecasts for relevant stocks under research coverage.

Overall, the broker lowered its near- to mid-term nickel and copper pricing forecasts, increased near-term cobalt pricing and left lithium pricing unchanged. The broker also lowered the near-term AUD/USD forecast.

For the March quarter, the broker expects Hillgrove Resources' to report a cash balance of $15.2m after recent capital raise.

Speculative Buy. Target 8c.

This report was published on April 16, 2025.

Target price is $0.08 Current Price is $0.03 Difference: $0.046
If HGO meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 135% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 1.13.

Forecast for FY26:

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide experienced, intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface.

This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.

Decisions about inclusions in this Report are made independently of the providers of stock market research and at full discretion of the team of journalists responsible for content at FNArena. Inclusion does not equal endorsement, in any way, shape or form. This Report is provided for informational purposes only.