Technicals | May 14 2025
Earlier today, Tony Sycamore, Market Analyst, IG updated his views and thoughts on financial markets, including the technical analysis updates below.
All material has been re-published with permission and does not by association represent FNArena’s views (we have none, we simply report).
First Up, Nasdaq100
This week’s rally in the Nasdaq 100 has brought some clarity to the charts.
Firstly, the emphatic break above the 200-day moving average at 20,191 negates the downside risks and indicates that the correction from the 22,222-record high to the 16,542 low is complete and that the uptrend has resumed.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, the rally from the 21st of April 17,592 low is displaying impulsive Wave iii type characteristics, which also supports the idea the uptrend has resumed.
We will remain with the positive bias unless the Nasdaq100 were to break below the 200-day moving average at 20,202 and then below support at 19,250/19,150ish.
ASX200
From its mid-February record high of 8615, the ASX200 fell -16.78% to its early April 7169 low, a move which had more corrective than impulsive characteristics.
After rebounding from the April low to within -3.5% of its record high, and despite recent developments on the trade front, our preferred scenario remains for a period (weeks) of consolidation/range trading.
This will likely be in a higher range (8400/7950) than what we suggested at the end of last month (8200/7730ish).
Crude Oil
WTI Crude Oil finished higher overnight at US$61.95/bbl (1.52%), its fourth straight day of gains, boosted by this week’s surprise tariff cuts and weaker-than-expected US inflation data, which sent the US dollar into free fall.
Crude oil is eyeing the top of its recent US$65.00/US$55.00bbl range.
If it can see a sustained break above resistance at $65.00/$65.50bbl, it would signal a stronger recovery towards the 200-day moving average at US$70bbl.
Gold
Gold finished higher at US$3250/oz (0.47%), bouncing from support ahead of US$3200/oz as weaker-than-expected US inflation data weighed on the greenback.
The view remains that gold is missing a final leg towards US$3150/oz, to complete an “abc” style Elliott Wave correction from the US$3500/oz high.
Should this occur, we will be looking for signs of basing around US$3150ish, which we think will likely form the platform for the uptrend to resume and a retest of the US$3500/oz high.
Technical limitations
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