Technicals | May 21 2025
Earlier today, Tony Sycamore, Market Analyst, IG updated his views and thoughts on financial markets, including the technical analysis updates below.
All material has been re-published with permission and does not by association represent FNArena’s views (we have none, we simply report).
First Up, Nasdaq100
Last Monday’s gap higher in the Nasdaq100 brought some much-needed clarity to the charts.
Firstly, the emphatic break above the 200-day moving average now at 20,238 negated the downside risks, and indicated the correction from the 22,222-record high ended at the 16,542 low. The uptrend has likely resumed.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, the rally from the 21st of April 17,592 low displays impulsive Wave iii type characteristics, which also supports the idea that the uptrend has resumed.
This should soon be followed by a Wave iv pullback taking the Nasdaq back into the 20,500/20,250 support area, before the uptrend resumes as viewed on the chart below.
A sustained break below the support provided by the 200-day moving average at 20,238, followed by a sustained break below the medium-term support 19,250/19,150 area, would result in a more neutral bias.
ASX200
From its mid-February record high of 8615, the ASX200 fell -16.78% to its early April 7169 low, a move which had more corrective than impulsive characteristics.
After rebounding from the April low to within -2.5% of its record high, and despite recent developments on the trade front, our preferred scenario remains for a period (weeks) of consolidation/range trading.
This will likely be in a higher range (8400/7950) than what we suggested at the end of last month (8200/7730ish).
Crude Oil
WTI Crude Oil finished marginally lower at US$62.03 (-0.18%), caught in the cross currents of US-Iran negotiations and Russia-Ukraine peace talks, both of which appear unlikely to deliver anything concrete in the short term.
Technically, crude oil appears well contained within a US$55-US$65 range, with a sustained break above resistance at US$65.00-US$65.50 needed to open up a move towards the 200-day moving average at US$69.62./bbl
Gold
Gold finished higher overnight at US$3289, up 1.84%, supported by safe haven flows and as the USD was weighed down by cautious Fed speak and concerns over the US economic and fiscal outlook.
Last week’s retracement in gold and the subsequent rebound from Thursday’s US$3120 low was in line with our previously stated view that gold was missing a final leg towards US$3150, to complete an “abc” style Elliott Wave correction from the US$3500 high.
Last Friday morning, we moved to a bullish tactical bias in gold, leaning against the US$3120 low, looking for a retest and break of the US$3500 high. Conviction in this view has increased following gold’s break above short-term resistance, US$3255/75 area.
Technical limitations
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