Technicals | Jul 02 2025
Earlier today, Tony Sycamore, Market Analyst, IG updated his views and thoughts on financial markets, including the technical analysis updates below.
All material has been re-published with permission and does not by association represent FNArena’s views (we have none, we simply report).
First Up, Nasdaq100
Post the Nasdaq100’s surge higher on the 12th of May, we have been working with the view that the rally from the 21st of April 17,592 low is a Wave iii (Elliott Wave) that should be followed by a Wave iv pullback.
The rebound early last week from our key 21,500/450ish support zone opened the way for the Nasdaq to push to record highs and for the Wave iii to extend.
A sustained break of short-term support at 22,000 would be an indication that the Wave iii is completed and that a Wave iv pullback is underway.
ASX200
After the ASX200 hit a new record high of 8639 earlier this month, we noted the RSI index was at its most overbought level since December 2023 (which was followed by a -4% pullback).
The -2.5% pullback since then into last Monday’s 8421.1 low helped the index work off overbought readings and was orderly, even begrudging, which indicates the move lower was a correction rather than the start of an impulsive move lower.
In summary, providing the ASX200 holds above support at 8420/8400 (sustained basis as always), the view is the correction from the 8639 high is complete at last Monday’s 8421.1 low and that a retest and break of the 8639 high will likely be forthcoming.
Crude Oil
WTI Crude Oil finished higher overnight at US$65.53 (0.86%), bouncing from support ahead of Thursday night’s non-farm payrolls, which will shape expectations around the depth and timing of Fed rate cuts in the second half of this year.
This comes ahead of this weekend’s OPEC-Plus meeting, where an increase in production of 411,000 barrels is expected to be announced.
It’s imperative that crude oil stays above support at $65/US$64 to maintain hopes of a bounce back into the low US$70s and to avoid another leg lower toward US$60/bbl.
Gold
Gold finished higher overnight at US$3338 (1.08%) bolstered by concerns over the White House’s tax and trade policies, reports of potential changes in Fed leadership, and expectations of future Fed rate cuts.
We have redrawn the trend channel slightly lower to take into account the recent dip to the US$3244/oz low. Providing gold holds above support at US$3244, it remains in an uptrend with the potential to retest the US$3500 high.
Technical limitations
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