International | 11:33 AM
Download related file: T-Rowe-Price-US-Policy-Under-Trump
By Tim Murray, CFA, Capital Markets Strategist, Multi-Asset Division at T. Rowe Price
The summer has brought more clarity on the specifics of trade and fiscal policy under President Donald Trump. Now investors must weigh the implications for inflation, the economy, and monetary policy.
Delays and rollbacks to the extreme “reciprocal tariffs” unveiled at the start of April —as well as trade agreements with key partners— have helped to anchor market expectations for the effective U.S. tariff rate. But the potential for tariffs targeting certain industries is a source of uncertainty.
The effective tariff rate for the U.S. is likely to end up somewhere between 10% and 20% — compared with roughly 2.5% at the start of 2025. Higher import duties and shifting supply chains should result in higher costs for companies, some of which will be passed through to customers via price increases.
What could this mean for the economy and markets? Inflation could accelerate, consumer spending could fall, and corporate profit margins could be squeezed. Small businesses, which account for more than 70% of U.S. employment, tend to have less pricing power and more sensitivity to the economy and interest rates. As such, they may face more pressure to lay off employees.
On the other hand, the tax and spending legislation that Congress passed in July should be modestly stimulative over the next few years. Here, the question is the extent to which more favorable tax treatment of capital expenditures and research and development will spur business investment.
That said, stepped-up spending on plants and equipment could lead to inflation in input costs.
The Federal Reserve must tread carefully as it walks the tightrope between keeping inflation in check with higher interest rates while being mindful of economic growth. Policymakers must also contend with political pressure to lower rates.
In this dynamic environment, a top-down understanding of the interplay between government policy, the economy, and the outlook for different asset classes can be especially powerful when it’s combined with deep insights into industries and individual companies in the U.S. and beyond.
The tables included in the document attached (see top) highlight some of the key policy areas we’re watching and the possible implications for asset allocation.
Note from FNArena: due to the particular format of the tables included, they have been made available as an attachment to this story (see top).
Re-published with permission. Views expressed are not by association FNArena’s.
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