International | Feb 01 2010
By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck
The release of monthly surveys into market conditions and the outlook for Chinese manufacturers has proved a mixed exercise with one of the surveys signalling ongoing growth for the sector, but with the other one indicating the Chinese economy might be generating the first signals of cooling down.
The HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index, formerly published by CLSA, rose to a record high of 57.4 in January from 56.1 in December, suggesting Chinese manufacturers have kept on growing for the fourth month in a row. Of the PMI’s 11 categories, six rose and five fell in January compared with December.
However, the monthly PMI published by the Federation of Logistics and Purchasing -considered the “official” survey- posted a surprise drop to 55.8 versus 56.6 in December, suggesting the first signs of a cooling down for the Chinese economy may already be apparent.
CFLP analyst Zhang Liqun said in a statement: “China’s economy is at a key stage of stabilizing the economic recovery”.
HSBC’s chief economist for China, Hongbin Qu, however remarked: “Industrial activity continues to accelerate, implying stronger GDP growth in the first quarter”.
Among the key subindices of the HSBC survey, new export orders and imports grew, while employment fell. All remained above the expansionary threshold of 50.
The “official” January manufacturing PMI dipped mainly because of a drop in the ‘backlog of work’ component to 49.9 from 52.4 in December. However, the forward looking new orders component remained relatively firm at 59.9 from 61.0 in December, and new export orders in fact picked up slightly to 53.2 from 52.6 the previous month.