Weekly Reports | Jun 04 2010
By Greg Peel
Tonight's jobs number in the US will be critical in determining whether the S&P 500 can break back up above its 200-day moving average at 1105. Assuming nothing untoward happens elsewhere in the world, this will be the number which takes us into next week either feeling more confident, or less.
Economists are expecting a substantial 500,000 increase so some commentators are suggesting they may be setting themselves up for disappointment. But there is a lot of haziness surrounding the public sector, particularly given the matter of a high number of temporary census workers.
Beyond that it's a quieter week next week on the data front.
The US will learn monthly consumer credit and wholesale inventory and sales numbers and the Fed Beige Book of economic activity, with Friday being the busiest day given retail sales, business inventories and the Michigan Uni's first June consumer confidence number are due.
Next week the US Treasury will auction US$70bn of three-year and ten-year notes and thirty-year bonds. The Treasury will release its May monthly budget result on Thursday.
It's quiet in Australia but it is unemployment week, with jobs numbers being released on Thursday. Prior to that we have April home loans and the NAB series of monthly business sentiment numbers. It will be important to note just how much May's market volatility has weighed on business confidence.
The action will hot up on Friday, when China releases is monthly round of data. It includes CPI, PPI, industrial production, retail sales and investment. The world will be expecting “slower” numbers but keeping a watchful eye on CPI. If inflation is under control, Beijing will almost certainly hold off on any further tightening while the situation in Europe remains edgy.
There is nothing of note on the local stock front next week but for a trickle of ex-dividends.
For a more comprehensive preview of next week's events, please refer to "The Monday Report", published each Monday morning. For all economic data release dates, ex-div dates and times and other relevant information, please refer to the FNArena Calendar.