Technicals | Jun 07 2010
By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck
Towards the end of March this year I published a story about the history of nickel as a leading indicator for the broader metals spectrum. For those in need of a quick update: history suggests nickel often leads the way when base metals are about to rally or dive, especially when they are about to dive.
To read the full story see "Nickel, The Leader Of The Pack", published March 22, 2010.
At the time I wrote that nickel has a high accuracy rate as a leading indicator in case of a pending sell-off in metals. The story in March suggested, however, that base metals were about to surge to new highs – and they did so in April.
Things have rapidly turned around since then.
On Friday, technical analysts at Barclays Capital returned to the leading powers of nickel, only this time nickel is expected to once again lead the broader complex further into negative territory. Barclays' report was issued before investors pushed down prices for copper and the other metals by substantial numbers on Friday, but the Barclays' commentary suggests this is not yet the end of the June sell-off.
In fact, last week's price action, reports Barclays, suggests the 17-month old bull market for nickel (and thus by default for other metals too) has now come to an end. The chartists advised their clientele to go short the metal targeting US$16,010/tonne (90 days futures contract).
Nickel closed just below US$18,000/t on Friday.
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