Currencies | Nov 25 2010
FNArena has added a new video broadcast to the Investors Education section on the website.
Jerry Simmons, Lead Mentor and Co-Founder of the Advanced Trading Workshop (“ATW”) analyses the EUR/USD cross, offering a likely scenario after recent weakness in the cross, and subsequently moves on to analysing the latest developments and potential scenarios for EUR/AUD, a first in the ATW Midday Strategic Preps. Total duration of the video broadcast (available through the FNArena Investor Education section on the website) is 37 minutes and 42 seconds.
Summary
In the first part of this video, Jerry Simmons, Lead Mentor and Co-Founder of the Advanced Trading Workshop, Inc. (“ATW”), New York, analyses the EURUSD cross. He concludes that there is a distinct possibility of an inverse Head & Shoulders pattern forming which would be bullish for the EUR, at a higher degree Wave 4. If the W4 analysis holds, then we would be likely to see a W5 down; which is bearish. So, a scenario taking both alternatives into account would be for the EUR to move down to a Wave 5 completion target and then reverse based on the combined effect of the inverse H&S pattern and the W5 completion target being reached.
In the second part of this video, Jerry Simmons analyses the EURAUD, a first in the ATW Midday Strategic Preps. Jerry analyses both the bullish and the bearish scenarios and what must occur to reach a conclusion which way we’re heading.
Comments
EURUSD
Markets, Jerry states, are not random; if they were, they would be untradeable. There is order in the market in forms of repetitive patterns and waves. Jerry finds a key DPTL (Dual Purpose Trend Line) on a 60 minute chart (a key chart for forex analysis) in the 1.3560-1.3600 price area, which forms a key support area. If the EURUSD can hold that support, we then need confirmation of a reversal to the upside by the price taking out (going above) the 1.3630-1.3635 area by RBO (reversal break-out).
EURAUD
According to Jerry, a trader’s trap is forming. It consists in luring traders into setting buy stops just above the 1.3940 level, believing the market has turned around. This lure is based on the distinct possibility of a DB (Double Bottom) forming on a weekly chart.
However, there are two key DPTLs, one at the 1.3920-1.3940 level, the other at the 1.4030-1.4060 level. Many will set buy stops just above the 1.3940 level believing that a reversal is occurring only to see the market spike up to the 1.4030-1.4060 level to then roll over and head down again.
Therefore, Jerry emphasises yet again the need for confirmation by way of RBO (reversal break-out) above the second resistance area above the current price, i.e. above the 1.4060 level. If that RBO occurs, we could see a rapid movement to the 1.4300 area, a move that would offer significant profit potential.
On the bearish side, a possible 5 –wave Elliot wave may be forming. This is not a contradiction to the bullish scenario, as it is possible, according to Jerry, that the w4 completion will now be followed by a fifth wave down. The minimum target for such a move down would be the 1.3600 price level. The primary (preferred scenario) completion target would be the 1.3470-1.3510 levels. Beyond that, there is a long term possible down-move to 1.2900-1.3000, where very strong support for the EUR against the AUD exists. If the 5-wave move scenario holds and we see a down move in the EURAUD (= a further appreciation of the AUD against the EUR) to the 1.3470-1.3510 levels, the EURAUD could then turn around and very rapidly move higher to a level which ATW technology teaches is the .786 RTC of the 5th wave down.
To view the ATW Strategic Prep Video (originally from November 22, 2010) titled "EURUSD Local S/R Inverse H&S; EURAUD Local S/R DB, 5W?" click HERE or visit the FNArena Investors Education section of the website.
All views expressed are Jeremy Simmons's, not FNArena's (see our disclaimer).
Jerry Simmons has over 25 years of full-time trading experience. He is the senior partner and head mentor for the “Masters” Programme within the education system at New York based Advanced Trading Workshop (ATW). ATW recently set up shop in Australia through the establishment of ATW Australia (since mid-2010).
FNArena is pleased to have Jerry Simmons as a highly valued contributor to its service which aims at both educating investors and assisting them with their own market analyses.
The above mentioned video has been added to the FNArena Investor Education section at https://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_minc_education)
The direct link to the video behind today's story is:
https://www.fnarena.com/index4.cfm?type=dsp_minc_video&p=15
About ATW Australia
Founded in June 2010, ATW Australia is a “one-stop-shop for all a trader needs to succeed”: quality education for new traders, superb advanced trading education, fast unfiltered data, a world-leading trading platform, customer oriented competitive brokerage, quality ‘Made in the USA’ specialized trading computers, trading magazines, and the all-important psychological mentoring and coaching for traders. The trading educational products are provided by the Advanced Trading Workshop, Inc. in New York, all other services are provided by a network of partners that were chosen based on their superior products and services in their specific field of expertise. FNArena is one such partner.
To learn more visit www.advancedtradingworkshop.com.au.
