FYI | Jan 16 2012
By Peter Switzer, Switzer Super Report
The first trading days into 2012 look positive but unconvincing and some big call merchants still have a lot of us spooked. Against the tentative optimism, Europe remains a massive question mark that will ultimately keep investors on the sidelines refusing to swap their cash or bonds for stocks.
Meanwhile, a new question has been posed that has important consequences for anyone trying to build wealth through stocks. That question is: “Is the US stock market decoupling from Europe?”
US resilience
Of course, the real decoupling issue gets down to whether the US economy and its key companies can weather a eurozone recession. Right now, some positive signs are coming through but they are not strong enough to take the S&P 500 through the 1,300-level. This has become a resistance point and, in order to push past it, a lot more positive stuff is needed to bank up against the negative news flow out of Europe.
Last week we learnt that US consumer credit for November was up by US$20.37 billion, against economists’ forecasts of US$7 billion. This was the biggest gain since 2001!
This follows US unemployment falling to 8.5%, confirming that their economy is a lot better than the doomsday merchants wanted us to believe last year.
Another nice sign was Alcoa’s better-than-expected company reporting as earnings season kicks off in the States. The overall picture of company profits and sales has been downgraded recently by the experts, but if these important barometers of US economic health come in better than expected once again, then this will be another force to work against European fear and loathing.
China easing
Critical meetings over the next couple of months out of Europe, as well as recession readings from the continent will be potential curve balls for stock markets going forward. I reckon the stronger US will be buttressed by a China that now looks set to cut interest rates and add to global demand.
This is the way CommSec’s Craig James saw it: “The latest Chinese trade data gives authorities further reason to ease monetary policy and boost economic growth. While export growth was in line with market forecasts, import growth fell well short of expectations. With inflation under control and numerable risks from abroad, China is well justified in seeking to stimulate the domestic economy – most likely through a reduction of bank reserve requirements. The healthy trade surplus is further reason to stimulate the economy and therefore head off US rhetoric about the need to boost the yuan (renminbi). The yuan was the third strongest currency in 2011.”
One final observation could be both timely and significant. Lately we have seen negative news as a reason to buy stocks; it happened when China’s import bill weakened, indicating that the economy had been slowing. This then led to expectations of easing monetary policy and that resulted in more optimistic views on future demand, commodity prices and stock prices for related miners.
Buying the dips
I haven’t seen enough positive signs to advise everyone to buy stocks and wait for the gains – though I personally have been buying the dips – but what we are seeing is the day-to-day experience of the muddling through thesis.
If the Europeans can keep getting decisions more right than wrong, as they have been doing lately, then stocks will take off sometime this year.
The Yanks haven’t decoupled from Europe yet – it’s simply a case of the US economy being better than expected and the eurozone isn’t scaring the pants off investors.
Peter Switzer is the founder and publisher of the Switzer Super Report, a newsletter and website that offers advice, information and education to help you grow your DIY super.
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