FYI | Mar 12 2012
By Kathleen Brooks, Research Director UK EMEA, FOREX.com
The markets have brushed off the Greek news from the weekend including the repercussions from the debt swap and the Eurogroup meeting later today that is set to rubber stamp the release of the second round of bailout funds for Athens. But in the absence of much economic data, the European open is dominated by concerns about other areas of the Eurozone, most notably Spain, who has already lowered its deficit target for this year.
The euphoria over Greece narrowly avoiding a default later this month has already been priced in and it appears that Athens has been taken care of for now. Going forward the focus for markets may keep risk assets slightly muted as investors price in the prospect of missed fiscal targets and weak growth in some of the peripheral countries that had seen their bond yields fall on the back of the ECB’s LTRO auction.
Greece might be taken care of for now but the news that the IMF has halved its contribution to the second Greek bailout fund should be worrying for markets. This puts more pressure on the EFSF and in the absence of more funds from Germany could raise concerns that the Eurozone’s firewall to protect Spain, Italy etc. is not big enough causing another wave of risk aversion.
It seems like we are in limbo right now: while the first couple of months of the year saw risky assets driven higher and sentiment pick up on the back of the global liquidity injection led by the ECB’s LTRO auction, the market’s focus now has to face-up to the fact that this liquidity may not be indefinite and at some point will need to be withdrawn. While central bank action is likely to be uneven across the globe, it appears that the Federal Reserve in the US may need to shift its focus from bolstering growth to being mindful of inflation.
The FOMC meeting concludes tomorrow and we also have CPI data for the US out on Friday. Core inflation is expected to show a 2.2% annual increase for February. This is above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with strong employment numbers and expectations that the worst of the Eurozone sovereign crisis is behind us even if it isn’t solved completely could mean that further monetary policy decisions from the Fed may not be of the stimulative kind.
Likewise, the ECB is sounding more hawkish after Draghi’s press conference last week, which suggests more liquidity may not be forthcoming from Europe. Japan seems to be the only central bank out there right now who is wholeheartedly behind unlimited stimulus, but then Japan is in deflation and needs its Bank’s support. Although the Chinese authorities may cut the reserve requirement ratio later in March after registering the largest trade deficit in more than a decade last month, inflation is still a problem for China’s authorities and if the US continues to expand then Chinese exports could pick-up later this year.
A world without as much central bank liquidity as we thought there was at the beginning of the year is weighing on risk. EURUSD fell below 1.31 earlier and the dollar index had another strong start to the week. Stock index futures are also expected to open mixed. In the short-term it looks like we are range bound. EURUSD found good support at 1.3070 – the 55-day sma, after a Chinese central bank official said that Beijing will continue to invest in Europe. However, the recent top is 1.3120, which is acting as a cap on gains for now.
Even USDJPY has come under a bit of pressure, failing to break above 82.50. However, the failure of stocks to break above key levels like 13,000 in the Dow Jones, along with a high oil price, Brent is still above $125 per barrel, is a warning sign that all may not be well in the financial world.
Views expressed are the author's, not FNArena's (see our disclaimer).
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