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Chinese Copper In London?

Commodities | Apr 19 2012

By Jonathan Barratt
 
The London Metals Exchange (LME) is currently deciding whether or not it will drop the British pound settlement on metal contracts [which is one settlement option offered alongside US dollars, euros and yen] to allow for settlement and clearing in Chinese renminbi (RMB). We feel that this would be a positive move not only for the LME but also for liquidity in the market, as Chinese demand accounts for 40% of global demand and is the major player.
 
The move by the LME we feel is intuitive, and if they go ahead it will serve to consolidate the LME as the major conduit of price discovery and liquidity for the metals. In addition, if China fully recognizes the move for the exchange to settle in RMB then it will consolidate the RMB as a major currency and provide support to Beijing's decision to internationalize the currency by recently widening the trading band. In addition to the LME looking at introducing an RMB-based settlement of contracts, the Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Ltd are looking to introduce several RMB-based commodity futures and the Hong Kong Mercantile Exchange is looking at RMB gold and copper contracts. It will be an interesting move as you are trading not only the commodity but a pegged currency.

Recent Chinese GDP data have not been to friendly towards our [long copper] position, however, industrial production data showed continuing support for manufacturing which the market conveniently ignored. We have decided to hold onto the position as we feel that tight supply and positive earnings in the US will provide good support. 
 
Chart Point

Well what a week… a break to the topside failed to materialize likewise a break to the downside has also failed to materialize. As a seasoned trader we have decided to hold the position, Why? It’s just a gut feel as movements are just too volatile. Momentum indicators now support higher price action. 

 
 

 
Produced by Jonathan Barratt direct from the trading desks of Commodity Broking Services, Barratt's Bulletin provides expert analysis of commodity markets, global indices and foreign exchange movements. Click here to take a no obligation 21-day trial to Barratt's or to learn more visit www.barrattsbulletin.com. Content included in this article is not by association necessarily the view of FNArena (see our disclaimer).

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