FYI | May 04 2012
By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena
I joined Twitter. Not because I am curious what this celebrity has to say about her kids, or to read that another one is waiting for a connecting flight, impatiently. Twitter allows me to follow news and commentary sources such as Dow Jones' Marketwatch, Bloomberg News and the Wall Street Journal. It assists me in keeping up with what is happening across the globe, while I am observing and analysing financial markets myself.
While I am on Twitter, reading a quote here and a news flash there, I offer my own succinct insights and commentary. Those amongst you who have already discovered the virtues of a Twitter account can add my Tweets to their daily news via @filapek.
For those who have no intention to join Twitter, but would like to stay up to date, below are my Tweets from the week past:
– Best summary of Oz banks interim results: it was good, but not THAT good (quote from JP Morgan's response post WBC report)
– Main Question Mark hanging in front of Oz Equities: are valuation headwinds for banks harbinger for general market weakness? Always has been
– BA-ML strategist Tim Rocks says Oz econ much weaker than RBA expected, more cuts forthcoming, but AUD will not necessarily weaken much..?
– Albert Edwards' latest: http://scr.bi/JgopY2
– Oz Stockbrokers: ANZ reaping downgrades, more downgrades for Independence Group, Watpac and CFS Retail; Brambles still a favourite USD play
– Meanwhile in the background…A-REITs continue outperforming broader market… JP Morgan sees better relative value in WRT, SGP, MGR and IOF
– How times have changed… Westpac just reported a slightly negative growth in cash earnings per share for H1; cash return on equity 15.1%
– FNArena's Icarus Signal has been flagging banks share prices are reaching valuation limits; the going is getting tougher from here…
– Chartist Daniel Goulding warns: number of stocks at 52 weeks low on the rise. This means inner weakness in equities market is strenghtening
– UBS maintains: Q2 outlook for commodities mixed at best; does not like copper, nickel, met coal, silver, alumina, cotton and sugar
– RBA delivers big surprise implicitly admitting a "mea culpa" on economic strength and high interest rates; 50bp cuts will get lots of debate
– Macquarie makes conviction call: commodities demand from China will improve from mid-year onwards, with upside seen to prices
– Oz stockbrokers today: upgrade for CBA, AWE; downgrades for CommW Property (CPA), Caltex (CTX), Imdex (IMD), Jetset (JET) and NAB (2x)
– DB analysts confirm FNArena's Icarus Signal: Bank valuations are looking stretched, trading on substantial PB and PE premium to global peers
– Stop the press: GS goes against the grain and forecasts slower growth for US in H2, but no recession. April non-farm payrolls est at 125,000
– Concludes Barclays: China's changing appetite for metals will benefit aluminium, nickel and lead the most
– And Oh Yes, after exiting too early, Dennis Gartman is back long in US equities…
– Citi strategists in Europe say market likely to keep capex-heavy spenders on low PE; stocks mentioned include Rio Tinto
– Barclays predicts commodities with strong linkages to rising living standards and changing tastes in China will be tomorrow's winners
– BA-ML strategists add: be mindful of likely further cuts to earnings estimates; meaning those PEs are actually HIGHER than what they seem
– BA-ML strategists find Oz equities ex-banks/resources NOT cheap; trading on 14.8x fwd earnings; year-end target remains at 4000 for ASX200
You can add my regular Tweets on Twitter via @filapek
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