FYI | Jun 01 2012
By Peter Switzer, Switzer Super Report
There is nothing more annoying than seeing markets at the mercy of wise guys, but that’s what we are dealing with right here, right now.
There is no panic, but market drivers are leveraging off the bad news every time some moronic European Union (EU) official opens his or her big mouth or we get a bad economic reading.
But, as I said, the panic is not an issue – yet. It could happen and the market’s fate will be sealed by the European Central Bank (ECB), the Greek election on 17 June and the banks in Spain.
On a day-to-day basis, US economic data could be used to spook Wall Street, but I think the mixed run of info on the economy will be largely OK.
This Friday’s jobs numbers will be interesting to watch, however a good number is not expected because the warm winter has robbed spring of great retail figures. Also, European-related fears and China doubts have made investors nervous, which has helped those who like to test a jumpy market.
The good news
But there is some good news.
“There’s certainly no panic – the S&P bounced at 1,311, which is right where we’re supposed to bounce,” said Stephen Guilfoyle, trader at Meridian Equity Partners, on CNBC.
“We’re going into two very heavy macro days in the US where the focus could shift to domestic reports – the GDP and non-farm payrolls.”
For those who want the latest scoreboard from Wall Street, this is how the market played out: the Dow dropped 160.83 points or 1.28% to 12,419.86 while the S&P 500 gave up 19.10 points or 1.43% to finish at 1,313.32.
Euro-mess
As I have been arguing for ages, the ECB has to support Spain, and the eurozone leaders need to help Greece grow so it has the jobs and the incomes to raise taxes and pay back its debt. This will help the Greeks vote in a sensible coalition government.
And while I am critical of the leaders of Europe, the Greeks really have to get their house in order.
The Greek central bank calculated that between 2.5-3.8% of GDP goes missing because of personal income tax evasion, but the problem is much bigger than that; the so-called ‘shadow economy’ where legal and illegal goods and services are traded, is said to have been equivalent to about 25.4% of GDP in 2010, and this is where tax is totally avoided!
When this European mess is sorted, the market will shoot up, but there is a lot of voting and negotiations that need to happen before there is a sound footing for a big rally.
Market reaction
Finally, shares will eventually rally higher once Europe comes up with a plan, but as investors, we will always have challenges.
Sav Savouri, an economist with UK hedge fund Toscafund Asset Management, thinks the Aussie dollar could become a reserve currency and could be $2 to the greenback!
Making money on stocks can be a challenge and that’s why you need access to good info and strategies that keep you committed to a winning plan.
But it sure is hard when the short-term gyrations really give you the ‘you know what’s’!
Peter Switzer is the founder and publisher of the Switzer Super Report, a newsletter and website that offers advice, information and education to help you grow your DIY super.
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