FYI | Jul 13 2012
By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena
I joined Twitter. Not because I am curious what this celebrity has to say about her kids, or to read that another one is waiting for a connecting flight, impatiently. Twitter allows me to follow news and commentary sources such as Dow Jones' Marketwatch, Bloomberg News and the Wall Street Journal. It assists me in keeping up with what is happening across the globe, while I am observing and analysing financial markets myself.
While I am on Twitter, reading a quote here and a news flash there, I offer my own succinct insights and commentary. Those amongst you who have already discovered the virtues of a Twitter account can add my Tweets to their daily news via @filapek.
For those who have no intention to join Twitter, but would like to stay up to date, below are my Tweets from the week past:
– Barclays anticipates strong rally for commodities in Q4-H1 13, but after that softer prices than previously anticipated. Palladium favourite
– Barclays has lowered commodity prices for years into the future (as about everybody is doing – see also Macquarie on crude oil today)
– US investors worry about earnings. With 28 out of 500 companies having reported so far, average earning growth sits at a negative 2.40%
– Macquarie is also very negative on Sandfire Resources (SFR) – it's called a Counter Consensus Call
– Macquarie doesn't like Primary (PRY) at all; favourable accounting makes stock 50% overvalued, plus treatment upfront GP payments a negative
– Goldman Sachs has removed Primary Health Care (PRY) from Conviction Buy list after strong performance, rating remains Buy
– CS Commodities update: balance of near-term risks to the industrial commodity complex is to the downside, though bounce may occur into 2013
– BHP- Source told Financial Times- BHP looking to sell aluminum assets in Brazil. Share price last $31.05. Qtr Production due July 18th
– UBS: outlook for construction in Oz remains opaque while recovery in NZ and USA is still debatable, thus risks for building stocks remain
– Says NAB: US growth prospects are disappointingly modest -both econ and companies- with no white knight on the horizon to boost growth
– So far, just 1 out of 16 companies that have reported this week have beaten Q2 EPS estimates. Ominous sign. $$
– UBS sees plenty of reasons remain cautious resources. Key call is buy gold/sell copper on 3-6 month view, buy oil/sell copper on 3-yr view
– Concludes NAB: "It seems we are not at the bottom for poor global sentiment yet" – well, no, not if US corporate results show lack of oomph
– With headwinds to global growth persisting, BA-ML analysts see continued weakness commodities prices in Q3; positive on gold and uranium
– JPM updates commodities prices forecasts: H1 even worse than already dour predictions, but prices should recover, albeit in mild fashion
– What if weakness in commodities and resources stocks means more than just risk aversion? ECRI warns "US recession" http://goo.gl/f4ZdL
– WSJ: "All banks are potentially insolvent. Therefore Libor is no longer an effective proxy for credit availability" http://on.wsj.com/Ney9py
– US reporting season (sort of) starts next week. Past research shows 8% USD gain weighs corporate earnings down by 2.6%. This year USD up 5%
– Conviction Call by CS ahead of Alcoa result: the worst is yet to come for Alumina Ltd in Q3; profits projected to approach nil (zero)
– One for the bears: BA-ML predicts 1.9% GDP growth in Q1 will prove to be the strongest of the year for US economy
– Think about it: data show largest redemptions from govt bonds ever (!) but the money went into corporate bonds, not into equities
– Lest we forget: Citi predicts downgrades for Italy, Spain, Greece, Ireland, Portugal in 3 quarters; US, Japan, France, Netherlands in 3 yrs
– US Long-Only equity funds have seen net redemptions in EVERY week in Q2 2012. EVERY WEEK. Marking the longest losing streak since Dec 2008
– Maybe this has escaped your attention: from a 14.8% GDP growth peak in Q2 2007 Chinese growth has now nearly halved in five years time.Soft?
– Barclays believes only agriculture deserves significant Overweight positions with significant upside potential still for grains, oil seeds
– Barclays remains underweight base metals; recent visits to China suggest market conditions too weak to justify further price appreciation
– Scary statistic: For every S&P500 member upgrading guidance for current quarter, 3.6 cut expectations – the highest ratio in over a decade
You can add my regular Tweets on Twitter via @filapek
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