FYI | Aug 24 2012
By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena
I joined Twitter. Not because I am curious what this celebrity has to say about her kids, or to read that another one is waiting for a connecting flight, impatiently. Twitter allows me to follow news and commentary sources such as Dow Jones' Marketwatch, Bloomberg News and the Wall Street Journal. It assists me in keeping up with what is happening across the globe, while I am observing and analysing financial markets myself.
While I am on Twitter, reading a quote here and a news flash there, I offer my own succinct insights and commentary. Those amongst you who have already discovered the virtues of a Twitter account can add my Tweets to their daily news via @filapek.
For those who have no intention to join Twitter, but would like to stay up to date, below are my Tweets from the week past:
– Iron ore cracked the ton yesterday closing at $99.6/t, lowest levels since Dec 09. Interestingly the AUDUSD was trading around 90c then
– Uh-Oh. Citi expects euro problems to last, with "prolonged economic weakness". 90% odds for Grexit in 12-18 months, but likely in next 6mths
– Dennis Gartman sold 50% of his US equities exposure. Hoping for more gains, but fearing weakness may announce itself instead
– Fed's minutes confirmed more action at Sep meeting. But what? Maybe extension ZIRP into 2015 is all that's on the agenda? Would disappoint
– Price of China import Iron Ore Fines 62 now at US$104.70/t. Keeps the world guessing whatever happened to high cost marginal producers exit?
– US economy will slide into recession in 2013 if Congress fails to act on current tax rates and avert deep cuts to federal spending, says CBO
– Joke today, but reality tomorrow? Italy holds elections in April 2013. Is a return of Silvio Berlusconi completely off the cards? Maybe not?
– The past week saw 43 downgrades by stockbrokers against 12 upgrades. Down today incl AMC, BGL, CFX, EHL, MND, NFK, SBM, SHL. MGR+QRX went up
– Iron ore prices drop sharply as questions surface over whether Rio Tinto is being forced to sell contracted shipments http://bit.ly/OvxEYf
– A bit slow; RBS has (finally) lowered price forecasts for bulks with iron ore and met coal dropping by double digits. Bottom thermal coal?
– Nomura sees "serious risk off" period ahead with S&P500 anticipated to fall by 20-25% on disapointment from central banks, US elections
– Forex.com 's Kathleen Brooks: Correction? Unlikely. Pullback? Possibly. Technicals still positive. Investors should watch AUDUSD
– ANZ: China slowdown worse than anticipated; imminent outright policy easing has become necessary. ANZ awaits 50bp RRR cut Aug, +100bp more
– Fairfax journos hold stop work meetings today to discuss the axing of 300 jobs. http://www.afr.com/p/national/fairfax_journos_hold_stop_work_meetings_TT9csQEkhgKjY55U6oEmvM …
– A market without sellers only needs a few buyers to keep grinding higher. Observe equities anno August 2012. Can go on for a while…
– Oz reporting season is unleashing flood of rating downgrades. Today it's BEN, BSL, CSR, DLX, DXS, OZL, QBE, RRL, SYD and WSA. 1 upgrade: MOC
– UBS research: basket of growth stocks paying dividends would have outperformed US market by 21% since lows of March 2009; same risk-adjusted
– UBS maintains iron ore prices will bounce in Q4. State analysts: "We are increasingly bullish on iron ore’s very short-term outlook."
– Double Standard in Oz: DB reports overall reporting season shaping up as worst since 2009 (EPS -5% so far); defensives are on a roll (+12%)
– Meanwhile in the background: situation to worsen in Portugal with government to ask for 2 year extension, Citi predicts. No exit anticipated
– Remarkable: GS US Strategist Kostin advises investors take money OUT of the market as lame Congress will fail to address Fiscal Cliff
– Macquarie believes oil markets fundamentally overvalued but various elements of support remain in place, incl risk on sentiment, technicals
– CBA now believes Chinese support for steel prices (via infra projects) likely to kick in from 2013 rather than late 2012. Same for iron ore
– RBS sees no major shift in the Chinese commodity demand structure. Earnings to remain pressured. Prefers energy, gold and mining consumables
– RBS strategists acknowledge miner valuations look appealing, but where's the catalyst? RBS sees none (for now). Iron ore on cost support H2
– ANZ now RBS' preferred Oz bank exposure (instead of NAB); BHP over RIO, OSH favourite in energy sector (short WPL), new long position Qantas
– Dennis Gartman: Bears can argue the fundamentals but they cannot argue the price. Traders with short positions increasingly uncomfortable
– Danske Bank: "near-term outlook for global economy looks less favourable now than six months ago"; too early for (much) higher bond yields
You can add my regular Tweets on Twitter via @filapek
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