FYI | Oct 19 2012
By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena
I joined Twitter. Not because I am curious what this celebrity has to say about her kids, or to read that another one is waiting for a connecting flight, impatiently. Twitter allows me to follow news and commentary sources such as Dow Jones' Marketwatch, Bloomberg News and the Wall Street Journal. It assists me in keeping up with what is happening across the globe, while I am observing and analysing financial markets myself.
While I am on Twitter, reading a quote here and a news flash there, I offer my own succinct insights and commentary. Those amongst you who have already discovered the virtues of a Twitter account can add my Tweets to their daily news via @filapek.
For those who have no intention to join Twitter, but would like to stay up to date, below are my Tweets from the week past:
– Oz Share market: it's a war between positive sentiment and the lack of earnings growth. What now? http://goo.gl/i0Sy5
– Watch shares in Graincorp (GNC). 44 million shares crossed at $11.75 this morning. A HUGE premium to last price of $8.85. Big buyer! #ausbiz
– Against the euphoria: BA-ML cuts #China forecasts. Sees slightly rebound 4Q12 but dip again 1H13. Est GDP growth now 7.7% in 12, 7.6% in 13
– GS sees point of reversal (not for the better) after AGM comments; downgrades #Imdex (IMD) to Sell with market downgrades to forecasts next
– Friday morning in Sydney: LME metals (mostly) up, crude oil weaker, US equities down and spot #ironore up by US10c to US$115.50/tonne
– Very buoyant Oz share market Thursday morning. Suspect investors are of view today's data from #China will represent a positive either way
– Unperturbed: MS' Gerard Minack has been too cautious this year, but expects material downgrades to 2013 EPS estimates in Europe and the US
– Anyone still paying attention? Spot #ironore price up by US$2.80 or 2.4% to US$115.4/tonne. LME metals up, USD weaker, crude oil divided
– UBS turns super-bullish post US field trip: target for #CSL raised to $52 (from $46.60), estimates up for FY14, upgrade to Buy
– #China U-turn instead of V-recovery: BAML projects 7.4% and 7.5% yoy growth in 3Q and 4Q. Annual growth of 7.6% for both 2012 and 2013
– One observation from all iron ore market updates: prices will settle below previously predicted levels in years ahead, but above spot today
– Spot #Ironore – there's a picture emerging here – #China Import Fines 62% FE down US$0.40 to US$112.60/dry tonne
– Morgan Stanley: Positive on Stockland (SGP) and Mirvac (MGR), but investors shouldn't get carried away with "Housing Hype" (their words)
– CS analysis suggests #commodity prices have run ahead of fundamentals. Q4 likely to see consolidation with elevated risks for sell down
– Noted: Analysts at CS believe Westpac (WBC) will report the outstanding result in upcoming FY12 sector reports. WBC is CS's sector favourite
– Noted: Macquarie economists increasingly concerned about 2013 prospects US #economy. In Oz, investors seen as too bullish on #RBA rate cuts
– BAML #China watchers see growing problems with non-performing loans and state another round of bank recapitalisation is possible in China
– BAML cautiously optimistic that the worst of the Oz housing cycle is behind us, but remains cautious about the speed of the recovery
– GS removes BHP from Conviction List, but still rated Buy. Rio Tinto downgraded to Hold. Following update commodity prices
– GS sees price recovery #ironore leading into 2013, but downward trend to resume afterwards. Miners' super profits to deflate post 2014
– RBS admits: sector sentiment is low, but #Monadelphous (MND) will grow profits strongly in years to come. Reiterates Buy with $27.84 target
– Citi economists remain of the view Greece will ultimately have to leave the eurozone. 'Grexit' now anticipated in H1 2014
– Going nowhere in a hurry: spot #ironore price fell by US$1.50 on Monday to US$113.00/tonne. Mimicking LME metals on the day?
– Not everyone's convinced about the bullish outlook for US equities. Here's one technical warning on "topping" equities http://tinyurl.com/8zlcgax
– BAML bull stays contrarian: market too expectant of #China stimulus post leadership change; focus to remain on structural reform like 1992
– Somebody has to do it: BAML strategists warn investors and politicians in US appear too complacent about fiscal cliff and implications
– UBS cuts #ironore price forecasts to US$122/tonne for 2012 (-7%), US$119/t for 2013 (-2%) and ultimately to US$83/t for 2016
– Good to keep in mind: From a medium-term perspective, Chinese growth is shifting to a lower gear, says GS, focus on domestic consumption
– #China spot #ironore price fell by US$1.30 on Friday to US$114.50 a tonne. Over the week the price rose US$10.30, but is rally faltering?
– #China facing oversupply of #coal, production at high growth rate even though growth in consumption has declined and inventories are high
– Observed: The S&P500 Index fell 2.21% last week, posting the worst week since early June. In #Australia, indices are virtually flat
– John Mauldin: foundation of decade-long commodity bubble is crumbling, disillusionment will replace investor enthusiasm … lower prices
– Byron Wien in Barron's: buy agri-commodities, prepare for weaker oil, put 5% in #gold and continue seeking yield, plus growth and innovation
You can add my regular Tweets on Twitter via @filapek
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