FYI | Oct 26 2012
By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena
I joined Twitter. Not because I am curious what this celebrity has to say about her kids, or to read that another one is waiting for a connecting flight, impatiently. Twitter allows me to follow news and commentary sources such as Dow Jones' Marketwatch, Bloomberg News and the Wall Street Journal. It assists me in keeping up with what is happening across the globe, while I am observing and analysing financial markets myself.
While I am on Twitter, reading a quote here and a news flash there, I offer my own succinct insights and commentary. Those amongst you who have already discovered the virtues of a Twitter account can add my Tweets to their daily news via @filapek.
For those who have no intention to join Twitter, but would like to stay up to date, below are my Tweets from the week past:
– The coming 6-9 months will prove crucial for the Newcrest Mining (NCM) share price http://goo.gl/tjKHH #gold #ASX #investing
– For those who want to hear: longer term contribution dividend yield to total returns likely to exceed recent past averages (Macquarie) #ASX
– Standard Life: government bonds expensive due to QE and safe-haven flows. "Investors should be very light in government bond allocations"
– Faster than anyone thought would happen: Spot #ironore has returned to USD120 per tonne (up 1.1%)
– This story reads like a Hollywood movie script – it's about publishing investment books http://tinyurl.com/4xjljov
– Citi predicts sovereign ratings will again become focus in 2013: Portugal awaiting downgrade; both France, UK to be placed on negative watch
– Deutsche Bank: compared to overseas, Australia’s PE looks expensive, but yield looks good. Remains cautious on mining stocks (High PEs) #ASX
– UBS Model Portfolio update for Oz equities: out AQG, QRN, RMD, SGP – replacements are CTX, CGF, PRU, PRY and WRT #ASX
– It would appear US$120 is the new magnet for spot iron ore price. Last night, spot #ironore price rose by US$1.20 to US$118.70 a tonne
– ANZ Bank: divergence lead indicator and risk appetite very wide. Correction is in the offing if we don’t get improvement in lead indicators
– US Q3 reporting season stats: of companies having reported 7% is higher in share price, 20% are down. Trend ex-financials is negative growth
– Written before it become too obvious: Oz AGM season is turning into a mine field – many misses and disappointments http://goo.gl/lFZ3v
– Oz share market is going through extended period of cuts to profit estimates. Mining services providers are feeling the brunt right now #ASX
– Macquarie argues we are in "very risky period for the Australian economy" with H2 next year potentially an "air pocket" for Oz economy #ASX
– Oz stockbrokers remained consistent in issuing (far) more downgrades than upgrades: today's victims include OZL, OSH, SMX – IFL upgraded Buy
– Just when one doesn't expect it: Citi economists forecast 2013 will be worse for European growth than recession of 2012. Divergences high
– Don't look! US equities are succumbing to weak corporate profits. Oz equities market has tried to stay its own course; for how long? #ASX
– Macquarie's commodity analysts reporting from LME week: pullbacks to supply projects will be the #commodity story over the next six months
– One for today: GS analysts expect Wotif (WTF) share price to react strongly on increased commission rates which lift FY14/15 EPS estimates
– Deutsche Bank believes #equities are well priced for recovery with risks to downside. Expects markets to be flat near term, at best #ASX
– Citi strategists believe US equities look attractive, mainly for investors with 6 to 12 months horizon. Earnings outlook clouded short-term
– Citi thinks authorities #China are comfortable with sub-8% growth, so no stimulus in store. Cuts GDP growth forecasts, benign recovery ahead
– Stats behind Q3 season: of 123 S&P500 companies that reported so far, 61% missed on revenue forecasts. Spot iron ore up US$2.20 to US$117.50
– #BREAKING The Queensland Government has confirmed it will lift the ban on #uranium mining
– Interesting to note we have 145 of 200 Stocks on the ASX above their LT moving average. New high level for 2012. FTSE just off 81%
– In one month, the #NASDAQ 100 stocks have moved from 81% of stocks above their LT MA to 45%. S&P500 from 85% to 66%. Markets are moving.
– Macquarie strategists reiterate preference for US equities over Oz: stronger EPS growth outlook + cheaper valuations = more attractive #ASX
– Deutsche Bank sees modest price softness for industrial metals leading into end of the year given challenging economic conditions globally
– Goldman Sachs downgrade WBC to sell and NAB to neutral (CBA already at sell, ANZ remain conviction buy) on valuation and EPS growth #ausbiz
– Dennis Gartman: Something's amiss in the #gold market and its health is growing more and more suspect. Disappointed and no longer overweight
– In case we forgot…RBS believes RBA will cut rates twice by year-end. Citi still waiting for Chinese RRR cut. Obama favoured in US election
– Citi believes #China property sector has bottomed but no sharp recovery anticipated. Overall activity to slow in Q4 due to China winter
– Spot Iron Ore – China Import (Fines 62% FE) off $0.20 to US$115.30/dry tonne
– BMO's Don Coxe: This is looking like a long slog sideways, and none is stuff of double digit P/Es for the Industrial World stock markets
– Still believe in peak oil? Well, if THIS cannot convince you otherwise, nothing ever will http://tinyurl.com/8k6z25q
– Feeling overly bullish with nothing around to suggest otherwise? Dave Rosenberg has a few "but ifs" for you http://tinyurl.com/9jah5px
– Seems like investors in US are at war too: optimistic sentiment versus disappointing profit growth. Same story here in Oz. Mind the traps
You can add my regular Tweets on Twitter via @filapek
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