Daily Market Reports | Nov 06 2012
By Greg Peel
The Dow closed up 19 points or 0.2% while the S&P gained 0.2% to 1417 and the Nasdaq added 0.6%.
Everything I have read in the Australian press these last couple of days suggests Obama has it tied up on the electoral college count. For US business television this morning, however, it remains “too close to call”. One guest even suggested “I sniff a Romney victory”. I don't know whether this is blind faith, but we won't have to wait too long to find out.
At least we hope we don't have to wait too long. All politics aside, Wall Street wants a Romney victory because (a) he's a (capitalist) Republican and (b) the Republicans will control Congress. Wall Street doesn't want an Obama victory because (a) he's a (socialist) Democrat and (b) the Democrats are unlikely to control Congress, suggesting at least two more years of policy deadlock. What nobody wants is a result so tight that it takes days or even weeks to decide, as was the case for George W's second term. One presumes the Romney camp would not stoop to that base level of legal challenge and general manipulation but one never knows under Tea Party influence.
If Wall Street traders are worried Obama will get up, it hasn't shown in last night's market. More likely they are simply unsure. One thing we do know is that an Obama victory in no way precludes a stronger stock market over the next four years, even if there is an initial sell-off. There is little in the way of correlation between Wall Street performance and the colour (red or blue) of the president. A Romney victory, on the other hand, would likely spark an initial rally, at least until the reality of the task at hand becomes clear.
On other matters, it was services PMI day yesterday across the globe.
Australia posted a slight rise to 42.8 in October from 41.9 in September, which means slowing from rapid contraction to only slightly less rapid contraction. HSBC's reading on the Chinese number contradicted Beijing's, with HSBC showing a fall to 53.5 from 54.3 despite the official result of a rise to 55.5 from 53.7. At least China's services sector is still expanding on both measures.
The eurozone's result is out tonight but the UK posted a fall to 50.6 from 52.2 which is threatening a slip into contraction, while the US also saw its number fall to 54.2 from 55.1, albeit still a half decent number.
Outside of the services PMI, Australia posted a mixed bag of data yesterday, with job ads, retail sales, the trade balance and the inflation gauge providing little clear direction for the RBA board today, which has probably made up its mind already anyway. Toss a coin.
Over in Europe, fears are beginning to bubble as the Greek parliament is yet to vote on the new budget measures put forward by the Samaras government that are necessary (but not guaranteed) to ensure the next tranche of bail-out funds is paid. Greece's Democratic Left has now said it will not support the measures while unions have organised another big strike for tonight in protest. It is becoming apparent opposition parties are possibly looking to force another election, which would simply take us back to the Gordian knot of earlier this year when it took weeks to actually form a government after the election.
Kick 'em out. Get it over with, please.
The euro has begun to break out of its recent range to the downside which is helping to support the US dollar index. The “Dixie” was up 0.2% to US$80.75 last night. The Aussie is steady at US$1.0363 and gold has managed a small rebound, up US$5.70 to US$1683.80/oz.
Base metals were neither here nor there last night and spot iron ore rose US40c to US$120.50/t. However US gasoline futures have begun to reflect the impact of Sandy-enforced shortages and this has flowed through to the crudes. The locals are less enthusiastic with an election tonight so West Texas was up US91c to US$85.77/bbl, but after five down days in a row Brent rebounded last night by US$2.43 to US$108.11/bbl. Brent is delivered to US east coast refineries.
The SPI Overnight closed flat as a tack.
Each year at this time, using both zero knowledge of and zero interest in horses, I provide a Cup tip based purely on a topical market connection. Right now there's much huff and puff in Britain as David Cameron threatens to pull the UK out of the EU, in which case an English horse with a French name rather caught my eye.
So the tips for today are Red Cadeaux, no change (I reckon the RBA will wait) and Obama.
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