Weekly Reports | Nov 23 2012
For a more comprehensive preview of next week's events, please refer to "The Monday Report", published each Monday morning. For all economic data release dates, ex-div dates and times and other relevant information, please refer to the FNArena Calendar.
By Greg Peel
Tonight will see the release of GDP and trade data from Germany along with the IFO business sector survey. Wall Street will be opened for a reluctant half-session, with the NYSE closing at 1pm local time. Trading will be ultra-thin.
On Sunday the Catalans go to the polls to vote for regional government. As the disproportionately significant contributor to what there is of Spanish GDP, Catalonia is not happy with the government's blanket application of austerity measures. While no party is expected to gain an outright majority, the majority of contesting parties is pro-referendum, being a referendum to vote on a Catalan secession from Spain. It would seem that the constitution cannot prevent a separated Catalan state.
Global markets have tired of waiting for Spain to ask the ECB for a bail-out, having lost patience these last three months. However it was back in September when Catalonia set its election date and at the time it was suggested the Spanish prime minister would not go down the bail-out path until the election outcome was known. Assuming the outcome is known by Monday, we have the possibility of the German parliamentary approval triple-header Angela Merkel has been waiting for – approval of the Greek bail-out tranche, a bail-out for Cyprus and a bail-out for Spain. The eurozone ministers are meeting on Monday.
It would nevertheless be a bit of a shock if all three occurred, and on the flipside it would not be a shock if nothing happens and Greece still doesn't get its bail-out tranche.
After a holiday-abbreviated week this week, US economic data will be back flowing thick and fast next week. Releases include new and pending home sales, the FHFA and Case-Shiller house price indices, consumer confidence, durable goods, chain store sales (including Black Friday), personal income and spending and the Richmond Fed index. The Fed will release its Beige Book and the first revision of the September quarter GDP estimate will be posted.
Australia will countdown towards its GDP release, with next week seeing September quarter construction work down and capital expenditure along with monthly private sector credit. On Friday, India will report its September quarter GDP.
Did anyone mention AGMs? Yes, there's another million of them next week but thankfully that will be the end of it for 2012, bar a couple of tardy stragglers meeting in December.
Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)" – Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided.
