Giving Thanks For A Flat Uranium Price

This story features ENERGY RESOURCES OF AUSTRALIA LIMITED. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ERA

By Andrew Nelson

It was a quiet week in the uranium market last week. In fact, it was so quiet that industry consultant and spot price tracker TradeTech didn’t even put out a weekly report, instead heading out to Grandma’s house to catch up with the rest of the US investment market.

Unsurprisingly, TradeTech’s Weekly U308 Spot Price Indicator was unchanged by last Friday, staying put at US$41.75 per pound. The Mid-Term price was unchanged at US$45.00 per pound and the Long-Term price was the same US$59.00 it was at the week before.

There was still a bit of news out there worth taking a look at and the first of it came from domestic shores. Australian Uranium miner Energy Resources of Australia ((ERA)) expects to post a full-year loss of between $135 million and $155 million in 2012. The company continues to cut costs furiously to address what are increasingly difficult market conditions.

At a recent investor briefing the company confirmed it would soon finish mining in Pit 3 at its flagship Ranger mine in the Northern Territory. After that it’s fingers crossed for Ranger 3 Deeps, or the company may soon have no projects to mine. ERA confirmed the slow recovery in Japan will probably keep the uranium market quiet in the near term, although the longer-term outlook in China is encouraging.

“China's new build and demand is still the key driver and is expected to drive higher (uranium) prices in the medium to long term,” ERA said in a statement.

I guess the good news to take from all of this is at least during the period between last production at Pit 3 at Ranger and first production Ranger 3 Deeps some time in 2015, uranium will be barley worth producing, it seems.

Elsewhere, there continues to be optimism about the looming supply deficit. UK website whatinvestment.co.uk spoke with with Rob Chang, metals and mining equity research analyst at Cantor Fitzgerald, and he said there is already a fundamental supply deficit between global demand and primary mine supply.

“Global demand is around 176m pounds U3O8, while primary mine supply is around 160m pounds," said Chang.

He pointed out that currently, this supply deficit is being masked by an overhang in inventories in Japan. However, Chang believes that over the next four years the market will see a growing supply deficit ranging from 5 million to 15 million pounds.

The size of the shortfall will ultimately be determined by if and when many of the recently announced production deferrals actually come back online, especially production from an expanded Olympic Dam.
 

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