FYI | Jan 18 2013
By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena
I joined Twitter. Not because I am curious what this celebrity has to say about her kids, or to read that another one is waiting for a connecting flight, impatiently. Twitter allows me to follow news and commentary sources such as Dow Jones' Marketwatch, Bloomberg News and the Wall Street Journal. It assists me in keeping up with what is happening across the globe, while I am observing and analysing financial markets myself.
While I am on Twitter, reading a quote here and a news flash there, I offer my own succinct insights and commentary. Those amongst you who have already discovered the virtues of a Twitter account can add my Tweets to their daily news via @filapek.
For those who have no intention to join Twitter, but would like to stay up to date, below are my Tweets from the week past:
– Look at #equities including #dividends and a different picture emerges, concludes Craig James (and I fully agree) http://bit.ly/W9Inte
– Dennis Gartman: Bundesbank repatriating gold from foreign vaults is but the beginning of a new trend. Nederlandsche Bank to follow suit
– Remarkable: Morgan Stanley retains #gold as favourite #commodities exposure for 2013. Perseus (#PRU) most preferred in Australia
– Market darlings in Oz continue receiving downgrades. Today JP Morgan downgrades Wesfarmers (#WES) to Underweight with price target $34.45
– On a buoyant day for oil, metals, precious metals, #China Fe62% spot #ironore price unchanged at US$145.40 a tonne
– Standard Bank joins #nickel bears with prices cut ever so more for years ahead. Says US$20,000/t is now off radar. 2013 average US$17,700
– Analysts at GS confirm my own prognosis earlier this week: #ironore is looking towards two more years of super prices-profits-margins
– Here's my take on Rio Tinto's (#RIO) production report this week and the outlook for this year and next http://bit.ly/WJO8wU #ironore
– Mean-reversion for US equities doesn't look good, UBS technical chartist says http://read.bi/11zwinO
– Are we experiencing a new trend whereby 2012's favourites are receiving downgrades in 2013? #Telstra (#TLS) downgraded to Sell by CIMB
– GS update on commodities triggers upgrades for #MML, #LYC and #EVN to Buy, but #AWC gets downgrade to Sell on share price appreciation
– MS downgrades Rio Tinto to Equal-Weight on skepticism cost out targets might be too ambitious, plus iron ore price already rallied a lot
– DB revised price targets for Oz Banks. New targets are all BELOW current share prices with exception ANZ (11% gap) and NAB (8%) – hmmm…
– Oooops!!! #China Fe62% spot #ironore price fell by US$7.50 to US$145.40 a tonne. LME metals and crude oil prices higher
– Ten books I read in 2012 (not all finance related) http://goo.gl/TkBSC
– Reports chartist Daniel Goulding: bearish engulfing patterns on weekly charts for both CBA, BHP. Share market thus expected to head lower
– JP Morgan also anticipates pull back and investors remaining cautious short term. #BHP and #FMG ratings remain Neutral. #RIO favourite 2/2
– JP Morgan the first to respond to higher #ironore prices by lifting 2013 forecast to US$130/t. Lifts earnings estimates across the board 1/2
– Shanghai spot #ironore price -$1.70 to $152.90 d/mt o/n. Fourth-consecutive fall, longest losing streak since 11-16 Oct, 2012 #ausbiz
– Goldman Sachs also forecasts stable #oil price for 2013 (US$110) and weaker metals with only #copper expected to move into backwardation
– Goldman Sachs anticipates US debt ceiling will again boost price of gold. But once issue solved, a long term decline is expected to kick in
– Citi sees more moderate gains for global equities in 2013. Forecasts too high but momentum to stay positive with valuations reasonable
– DB sees little (if any) earnings momentum from oil prices for energy stocks this year (same as in 2012). Stock specific issues will dominate
– BA-ML downgrades BHP to Underperform on conviction shares will underperform continued rally plus they will suffer when prices turn oil/iron
– DB thinks spot #ironore can rise to US$170/tonne in coming weeks. Also thinks price can sink below US$120/tonne in second half
– Spot #ironore followed most other commodities down on Friday. Spot price fell by US$3.30 to US$154.90/tonne
– JP Morgan lines up its preferred A-REITs for the year ahead: GPT, WRT, SGP and DXS. Expects to witness another good year for the sector
You can add my regular Tweets on Twitter via @filapek
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