Technicals | May 07 2013
By Michael Gable
While the market continues show signs of confusion, I am discovering further clarity in the direction of specific stocks. QBE ((QBE)) we looked at last week and that appears to be breaking out of its continuation pattern now. BHP Billiton ((BHP)) I have spoken about for a month now finding good support here. While it hasn’t rallied too far yet, it has managed to hold above $30, and recent price action suggests a nice bounce from current levels. The other sector I see under pressure is discretionary retail. Myer ((MYR)) in particular is shaping up to be a good shorting opportunity here and I will be devising an options strategy to profit from the downside. Have a good look at MYR as I feel this is the trade of the week and can provide a very good opportunity for investors looking to hedge some downside.
Myer
Myer has almost doubled in value from its lows in June last year. Rate cuts have helped improve sentiment slightly and retail sales earlier this year were indicating that the consumer was slowly starting to spend money again. However, up here the stock is almost priced to perfection and it won’t be able to tolerate any setbacks. When we look at the chart, the bearish engulfing pattern (circled) and the divergence with the RSI suggest to me that the market is looking for reasons to exit the stock.
What could further derail the MYR rally? Retail sales for March were down -0.4% when the market was expecting them to be +0.2%. The other major point to note is the weather. March has been unseasonably warm and if we don’t get a cold snap in the next week or two, then we are going to see a lot of winter apparel get discounted. This pressure on margins will hurt the retailers just when they thought they were finding their feet. As a result, previous company guidance may need to be downgraded. As a result, I can see weakness in the discretionary retailers. Myer in particularly has downside to $2.60 and then further support at $2.40.
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Visit Michael Gable's website at www.michaelgable.com.au/.
After leaving Macquarie Bank's Securities Group in 2008 after many years of service, Michael has gained a highly regarded reputation in the financial services industry. As a Private Client Adviser with Novus Capital, Michael has become a popular live commentator and analyst for Sky News Business Channel’s “Your Money, Your Call” program. He is also the author of the weekly stock market report “The Dynamic Investor”.
Michael assists investors to achieve their goals by providing advice ranging from short term trading to longer term portfolio management.
Michael deals in all ASX listed securities and specialises in covered call writing to help long term investors protect their share portfolios and generate additional income.
Michael is RG146 Accredited and holds the following formal qualifications:
• Bachelor of Engineering, Hons. (University of Sydney)
• Bachelor of Commerce (University of Sydney)
• Diploma of Mortgage Lending (Finsia)
• Diploma of Financial Services [Financial Planning] (Finsia)
• Completion of ASX Accredited Derivatives Adviser Levels 1 & 2
Disclaimer
Michael Gable is an Authorised Representative (Rep. No. 376892) of Novus Capital Limited AFSL 238168 ACN 006 711 995. Michael Gable and Novus Capital Limited, their associates and respective Directors and staff each declare that they, from time to time, may hold interests in securities and/or earn brokerage, fees, interest, or other benefits from products and services mentioned in this website. This website may contain unsolicited general information, without regard to any investor's individual objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not specific advice for any particular investor. Before making any decision about the information provided, you must consider the appropriateness of the information in this website or the Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) or Financial Services Guide (FSG), having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs and consult your adviser. Any indicative information and assumptions used here are summarised and also may change without notice to you, particularly if based on past performance. Michael Gable and Novus Capital Limited believes that any information or advice (including any securities recommendation) contained in this website is accurate when issued but does not warrant its accuracy or reliability. Michael Gable and Novus Capital Limited are not obliged to update you if the information or its advice changes. Michael Gable and Novus Capital Limited and each of their respective officers, agents and employees exclude to the full extent permitted by law, all liability of any kind, in negligence, contract, under fiduciary duties or otherwise, for any loss or damage, whether direct, indirect, consequential or otherwise, whether foreseeable or not, to the extent arising from or in connection with this website.
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