FYI | Jun 21 2013
By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena
I joined Twitter. Not because I am curious what this celebrity has to say about her kids, or to read that another one is waiting for a connecting flight, impatiently. Twitter allows me to follow news and commentary sources such as Dow Jones' Marketwatch, Bloomberg News and the Wall Street Journal. It assists me in keeping up with what is happening across the globe, while I am observing and analysing financial markets myself.
While I am on Twitter, reading a quote here and a news flash there, I offer my own succinct insights and commentary. Those amongst you who have already discovered the virtues of a Twitter account can add my Tweets to their daily news via @filapek.
For those who have no intention to join Twitter, but would like to stay up to date, below are my Tweets from the week past:
– Never the first… Bell Potter's Charlie Aitken calls the end of the Commodities Super Cycle: "Dead. Buried. Gone" #commodities
– ANZ: Commodity currencies now in a cyclical down move. ANZ is forecasting the AUD to be in the USD0.80s next year #commodities
– BTIG: what matters is whether #stocks ultimately belong at higher levels and we believe they do. Things will look better on the other side
– Hands up everyone who thought Newcrest (#NCM) looked like worthy of a punt when it sank below $20? Share price just fell under $10!
– CIMB: most of near-term down-side risk from uncertainty monetary policy outlook now removed, markets can anchor themselves to fundamentals
– Meanwhile in the background: the new trend… lifting GDP growth estimates for developed economies, but lowering those for emerging markets
– Hands up everyone who predicted this rapid a demise for AUD? No-one? AUDUSD below 0.92 overnight. Spot #ironore up US60c to US$120.60/tonne
– Macquarie: believe recent interbank liquidity squeeze in #China could last till next month, would probably have negative impacts on growth
– If this is a bull market, it's one that requires a lot of hard work, so much is certain "Australia Remains Hard Work" http://bit.ly/16QqDKp
– BBH: "It is becoming clear that #China is unlikely to deliver any significantly positive economic news over the near-term"
– Well-informed Beijing sources confirm China interbank market is basically frozen, rates are quoted but no transactions taking place
– Bottom Line: Today's HSBC manufacturing PMI suggest that the deceleration in #China's growth is intensifying. Says Danske Bank. No argument
– I think main question about today's markets is: who is benefiting from the extreme volatility? Meanwhile, spot #ironore up US$2.30 to US$120
– BA-ML #China strategist maintains hard landing for the Chinese economy is a higher risk this time compared to 2011 and 2012
– ANZ Bank reiterates it sees an official interest rate reduction in #China to help support growth above 7%. Growth to rise towards 7.8% 2014
– Just witnessed a very embarrassing live broadcast on Sky Business from Westpac offices in Sydney. Rowdy staff members not paying attention?
– Citi predicts both Oil Search (#OSH), Santos (#STO) shall need extra capital raisings. Still value accretive for Santos, not for OSH #stocks
– Deutsche Bank strategists remain "hopeful" earnings growth will materialise for Oz resources and cyclical industrials in 2014 #equities
– JP Morgan analysts post China visit: credit risk concerns are justified. Expect this cloud to hang over the #China theme for some time
– Storm in a cup of tea? ANZ predicts Bernanke to reinforce that any adjustment to the Fed fund rate remains a long way off, but tapering soon
– BA-ML believes #miners in Australia will benefit from slowing economy. BHP, Rio screen well, Gindalbie and Yancoal screen least favourable
– Citi strategists see short term challenges for US #equities, but positive view for 2014 and 2015 remains intact as US decouples from rest
– Citi analysts report their model predicts 30% cumulative decline in #mining capex over 2013-15. Pricing is next shoe to drop #commodities
– Analysts warn DuPont's profit warning is also a negative for Nufarm (#NUF) due to unseasonably cool wet weather in North America and Europe
– Citi moves from bearish to neutral on #Resources (6-mnth view), but maintain structural negative view on sector with few potential catalysts
You can add my regular Tweets on Twitter via @filapek
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