FYI | Jul 12 2013
By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena
I joined Twitter. Not because I am curious what this celebrity has to say about her kids, or to read that another one is waiting for a connecting flight, impatiently. Twitter allows me to follow news and commentary sources such as Dow Jones' Marketwatch, Bloomberg News and the Wall Street Journal. It assists me in keeping up with what is happening across the globe, while I am observing and analysing financial markets myself.
While I am on Twitter, reading a quote here and a news flash there, I offer my own succinct insights and commentary. Those amongst you who have already discovered the virtues of a Twitter account can add my Tweets to their daily news via @filapek.
For those who have no intention to join Twitter, but would like to stay up to date, below are my Tweets from the week past:
– BA-ML calls it "the big humiliation of the safe havens"; first #gold, then Apple, now bonds and Emerging Markets… #investing #equities
– BA-ML: As Great Rotation goes mainstream stay aware H2 risks, least commented upon is unwillingness banks to increase lending, create jobs
– UBS: "the now clear uptrend in the unemployment rate likely cements a 25bp rate cut by the RBA in August (as we have been expecting)"
– Citi points out Oz full-time unemployment rate moved back to 6.1%, the highest rate since the GFC and on steady rise since start of 2013
– Overnight: tin, nickel not joining Fed stimulus rally. #Gold has nice run. Crude oil prices down. #China #ironore up US$1.30 to US$125.20/t
– Communication from Deutsche Bank to clientele: "Fed minutes leave market confused, September tapering still likely" #Investing #tapering
– Today's one of those days when investors/traders better ignore closing prices on Wall Street. Mood is upbeat following Bernank's Q&A
– Macquarie remains firm believer in #China property outlook. "One or two ghost towns are not sufficient to cause oversupply across China"
– Citi (post yet another in-depth modeling exercise): no threat to dividends Oz #banks. Sustainability makes yields compelling. CBA safest
– UBS updates #commodities with yet another series of cuts to price forecasts. Predicts Q3 weakness #ironore. Prefers PGMs, uranium & alumina
– JP Morgan analysts conclude NBN in operation will put downward pressure on small & mid-tier #telcos. Underweight TPG Telecom and iiNet
– ANZ Bank's #commodity trades for July: long WTI-Brent crude oil spread as WTI more supported and short #ironore
– Quite amazing, if you think about it. Only 30% of Oz #equities are unambiguously in an uptrend. Bull market anyone? http://bit.ly/12XjxPb
– Morgan Stanley suggests (on Alumina #AWC): revisit in 15. It's going to be weak in the meantime. Losses for FY13, only marginal profit FY14
– Macquarie Marquee Ideas. Additions include TAH, NNC, SAI, GPT, NUF. Removed CAB, OSH and PNA #equities
– Macquarie on #China: Given existing weaknesses of current economy, we’d expect the negative impacts of tighter liquidity to be felt soon
– Citi on #China: economy may test 7% GDP growth in the next 12 months if China starts de-leveraging and clamping down on shadow banking
– Citi on #China: Investment slowdown and local government defaults major risks alongside possible de-leveraging. Adjustment only just begun
– Citi on Alumina Ltd (#AWC): "even the falling A$ will not be enough to turn around profitability in the 2H unless prices rally, in our view"
– #China import #Ironore Fines 62% continues rising. Overnight price up US$1.80, 1.48%, to US$123.70/tonne
– Quite amazing, daily volatility Oz #equities these past weeks. Goldmans reports volumes are on average down 33% from 6 month averages
– CS labels Alcoa result "ugly" in regards to consequences for partner Alumina Ltd (AWC). Instantaneously puts valuation/target Under Review
– HSBC cut its GDP growth forecast for Asia ex-Japan from 7.2% to 6.1% for 2013 and from 7.2% to 6.5% in 2014 because of slowdown in China.
– Ooops! (2) Citi strategists see upside global #equities 15- 20% by Mid-2014, but they are underweight #Australia as local economy struggles
– Ooops! Citi says #China "cyclical upturn restrained by structural gravity". Cuts 2013-14 growth forecasts to 7.4% and 7.1%. No gvt stimulus
– It's just daily volatility… #metals prices up (for a change), crude oil unchanged, #gold up and #ironore down by US70c to US$121.90/tonne
– Citi on European #equities: many are cheap, but also plenty of value traps around. Investors advised to stick with quality, avoid challenges
– The band ZZ Top turned down $1,000,000.00 to shave their beards for a Gillette commercial.
– #China spot #ironore continues to stand out in #commodities space: up by US60c on Friday to US$122.60/tonne, gain of US$6.10 over the week
You can add my regular Tweets on Twitter via @filapek
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