FYI | Nov 02 2013
The weekly downtrend has ended flat with the market closing +3 from the 5387 stop. The short term daily is on a downtrend and weakness is expected. Last week the market found strong resistance at the upper range target at 5439. The upside target for this week is 5444 (+5 from last week) indicating a medium term peak in the market looks set at last weeks high.The downside shows support to 5221.
The daily short term downtrend continues to hold with a daily stop for Monday at 5392. This indicates the daily is also flat. The lack of activity is leading to a lack of trend which is consistent with a peak and major turning point in the market.
The market has flat lined and a close below 5359 next week will hold the down trend. Volume was higher last week with average volume seen on Thursday and Friday as sellers started to move. An increase in volume should lead to further falls. The short term daily indicates short positions with the medium term indicating neutral. Refer to daily reports for updates.
Bulls pushed the market to overbought on 3 occasions last week but were unable to force a breakout. The weekly trend closed flat right on the 5387 pivot. The daily, weekly and monthly shows limited upside resistance above 5444 and the bulls will need to hold supports at 5387 and 5359 and break 5444. A close above 5359 will see a new weekly uptrend from flat this week.
Bears have held a push to new highs and closed the market at the lows of last week, Increases in volumes are leading to increased sell side pressure and the daily indicates falls should be expected this week. The market will need to close below 5359 to regain the downtrend. The important supports for next week are 5378, 5336 and 5284.
iQUANT FORECAST RANGE 5221 – 5444
PIVOT POINT 5359
Review of prediction from 25th October 2013 for last week
The weekly uptrend has ended and a new downtrend has started with a close below 5424.The market is at the upper end of the short term range and the RSI is at elevated levels. Last Wednesday’s fall reversed the RSI from extreme levels. The weekly outlook shows limited upside resistance to 5439. The downside shows support to 5281.
The daily short term uptrend continues to hold. The daily stop for Monday is 5395 and a close below this level on Monday will see the market on a downtrend on a daily basis. The weekly upside target is 5439 and any move above this level will put the market at extreme overbought levels again. The daily uptrend continues to trade into the weekly downtrend.
The market continues to break higher and a new daily downtrend and close below 5387 next week will confirm a peak. Volumes remain low as sellers remain patient. Short term momentum continues to push the market higher. The daily will indicate the peak and any move to a daily downtrend will present a selling opportunity. Refer to daily reports for updates.
Bulls held the lower range last week and maintained momentum however the trend changed to a downtrend. The weekly downtrend will be reversed with a close above 5387 at the end of the week. The bulls see limited upside resistance above 5439 and a break of this level may see another breakout.
The daily also shows limited upside resistance above 5440 and the bulls will need to maintain the momentum.
Bears have regained control with a new weekly downtrend. Low volumes see sellers remaining patient and the daily uptrend continues to hold. A new daily downtrend may see volumes increase and a decline in prices. The important supports for next week are 5369, 5350 and 5319. The Weekly stop is +2 from the close indicating there is increased downside risk.
iQUANT FORECAST RANGE 5281 – 5439
PIVOT POINT 5387
ACTUAL 5379 – 5448
A lack of direction and limited movement in the market this week. The market traded the 5387 – 5439 range all week. Sellers remained patient and supports held. The lack of volume resulted in a number of short term spikes as sellers tried to manufacture buying momentum. A daily downtrend on Tuesday was short lived with a reversal on Wednesday before an increase in volume on Thursday saw selling pressure test supports. The predicted daily ranges continued to track the market and short term traders did best with small gains and tight stops. The short term downtrend continued to trade against a medium and long term uptrend.
The market closed at 5390 against the stop at 5387. This indicates a neutral weekly trend. The daily downtrend is strong and a break of 5387 will lead to a correction. Currency and international markets indicate a long awaited increase in volume should lead to a test of recent lows.
The predicted upside range held the market and 5440 is major resistance for remaining bulls.
Log Into http://www.iquantsystems.com to view real time reports on ASX top 20, international indices, currencies and commodities.
ASX200 report tracks the December ASX200 SPI. The ASX200 index is currently trading at a 11 point premium to the futures. All levels in this report refer to the ASX200 SPI futures
Republished with permission. Views expressed are not by association FNArena's (see disclaimer).
The information contained in this communication is general information only. Any advice is general advice only. Neither your personal objectives, financial situation or needs have not been taken into consideration. Accordingly you should consider how appropriate the advice (if any) is to those objectives, financial situation and needs, before acting on the advice. Iquant Systems Pty Ltd (CAR No.435627) is a corporate authorised representative of Avestra Capital Pty Ltd (AFSL No. 292464).
Copyright © 2013 Iquant Systems, All rights reserved.
Technical limitations
If you are reading this story through a third party distribution channel and you cannot see charts included, we apologise, but technical limitations are to blame.
Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)" – Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided.
