Commodities | Nov 05 2013
By Greg Peel
For a short while it appeared as if the month of October would see some renewed strength in the price of spot uranium. It was not to be, nevertheless, as producers and traders began entering the market mid-month to offload material they did not wish to hold at year-end.
Cheaper prices brought out utilities and other traders but there was not sufficient demand, industry consultant TradeTech reports, to offset the downward pressure on the spot price. October saw 26 transactions completed in the spot market totalling 2.6mlbs of U3O8 equivalent. Transaction prices varied over the month depending on delivery location, delivery schedule and timing of payment.
Perhaps one glimmer of hope for uranium producers is that prices for transactions involving delivery before year-end were below prices for delivery in 2014.
TradeTech’s spot uranium price indicator closed the month at US$34.25/lb, down US75c from end-September. Four transactions were completed in the term market in October, and prices negotiated have forced TradeTech to lower its mid and long-term price indicators. The mid-term price falls US75c to US$37.25/lb and the long-term price falls US$1.00 to US$50.00/lb.
Last week closed on the first of November and there was no change to TradeTech’s US$34.25/lb spot price, which is down US60c from the week before. The week saw eight transactions totalling 800,000/lbs of U3O8 equivalent. As the week came to a close, sellers eased back their aggression, Trade Tech reports, allowing prices to stabilise.
Perhaps once producers and traders holding excess material have cleared the decks for year-end books-close the uranium price can find some fresh support in 2014. There was some good news last week, with Korea restarting one of the six of its 23 reactors that were shut down on safety concerns two months ago. With winter approaching, Korea is facing the potential of power shortages. Yet for uranium producers, many of them burning cash at current price levels, the fundamental hope is that 2014 will be the year in which Japan decides the cost of importing fossil fuels is too big a hit on an economy the government is trying to revive, and that the country’s reactors must be restarted sooner rather than later.
So far, no news.
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