FYI | Nov 10 2013
The weekly closed last week on an uptrend. The market has lacked direction for the past fortnight and rallies have been quick and short lived with a lack of volume at the peaks indicating the market is being bid up as sellers remain patient. The short term daily is on a downtrend and weakness is continued to be expected. The upper range target for next week is 5428 and is below last week’s peak at 5456. A move above 5428 will see the market overbought in the medium term.
The daily short term downtrend continues to hold with a daily stop for Monday at 5425. Last week the daily had a change to a downtrend on Wednesday however the market held support and a lack of volatility was seen intraday. We expect volume and volatility to increase this week.
The market has traded the predicted 5387 -5444 range for the last fortnight and a break outside these ranges will lead to the next direction for the market. Currency markets are falling from peaks and the SP500 has tested key support at 1755. The short term daily indicates short positions with the medium term in an uptrend with limited upside – indicating neutral. Refer to daily reports for updates.
Bulls held supports and stops and are back on trend. Upside resistance can be seen to 5428 and the November monthly congestion between 5417 and 5444 continues to hold any rallies. The weekly stop at 5387 confirms this level as a key pivot for the market. A break of 5444 will see the market break all medium and long term resistance and will lead to a break out. The daily upside target for Monday is 5463 and a break of this level will see the market extremely overbought. A close above 5387 at the end of the week will maintain the uptrend.
Bears were unable to maintain momentum and break supports. The daily remains on a down trend and bears will need to see the long supported levels at 5387 and 5373 broken to indicate new medium term shorts and weakness in the market. The important supports for next week are 5387, 5373 and 5361. A close below 5387 will see a new downtrend and possible short positions.
iQUANT FORECAST RANGE 5292 – 5428
PIVOT POINT 5387
Review of prediction from 1st November 2013 for last week
The weekly downtrend has ended flat with the market closing +3 from the 5387 stop. The short term daily is on a downtrend and weakness is expected. Last week the market found strong resistance at the upper range target at 5439. The upside target for this week is 5444 (+5 from last week) indicating a medium term peak in the market looks set at last weeks high. The downside shows support to 5221.
The daily short term downtrend continues to hold with a daily stop for Monday at 5392. This indicates the daily is also flat. The lack of activity is leading to a lack of trend which is consistent with a peak and major turning point in the market.
The market has flat lined and a close below 5359 next week will hold the down trend. Volume was higher last week with average volume seen on Thursday and Friday as sellers started to move. An increase in volume should lead to further falls. The short term daily indicates short positions with the medium term indicating neutral. Refer to daily reports for updates.
Bulls pushed the market to overbought on 3 occasions last week but were unable to force a breakout. The weekly trend closed flat right on the 5387 pivot. The daily, weekly and monthly shows limited upside resistance above 5444 and the bulls will need to hold supports at 5387 and 5359 and break 5444. A close above 5359 will see a new weekly uptrend from flat this week.
Bears have held a push to new highs and closed the market at the lows of last week, Increases in volumes are leading to increased sell side pressure and the daily indicates falls should be expected this week. The market will need to close below 5359 to regain the downtrend. The important supports for next week are 5378, 5336 and 5284..
iQUANT FORECAST RANGE 5221 – 5444
PIVOT POINT 5359
ACTUAL 5372 – 5456
The bulls did what was required this week to regain the uptrend. After holding the monthly pivot at 5373 on two occasions on Monday the market traded with low volatility. Wednesday saw a test of the 5387 support which also held and the market rallied to break through the upper target at 5444 on Thursday night. The daily changed to an uptrend on Tuesday before reversing to a downtrend on Wednesday. The daily range forecasts were inline all week as the market traded the predicted 5387 – 5444 range. The short term downtrend continued to trade against the weekly and monthly uptrend. Sellers remained patient and supports held. Volume was seen at the peaks and the highs above 5425 were not maintained.
The market closed at 5409 with a new weekly uptrend. Limited upside resistance can be seen above 5444 and the market is overbought above this level. Currency markets continued to fall from peaks with the Euro hit hard with increased volatility. The ASX200 futures finished up 19 points for the week and we remain neutral in the medium term. The predicted upside range held the market and 5444 is major resistance for the new weekly uptrend.
Log Into http://www.iquantsystems.com to view real time reports on ASX top 20, international indices, currencies and commodities.
ASX200 report tracks the December ASX200 SPI. The ASX200 index is currently trading at a 14 point discount to the futures. All levels in this report refer to the ASX200 SPI futures.
The information contained in this communication is general information only. Any advice is general advice only. Neither your personal objectives, financial situation or needs have not been taken into consideration. Accordingly you should consider how appropriate the advice (if any) is to those objectives, financial situation and needs, before acting on the advice. Iquant Systems Pty Ltd (CAR No.435627) is a corporate authorised representative of Avestra Capital Pty Ltd (AFSL No. 292464).
Copyright © 2013 Iquant Systems, All rights reserved. Republished with permission. All views expressed are not by association FNArena's (see our disclaimer).
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