Daily Market Reports | Nov 28 2013
By Greg Peel
The Dow closed up 23 points or 0.2% while the S&P gained 0.2% to 1807 and the Nasdaq added 0.7% to cement its breach of 4000.
Australian construction work done grew by 2.7% in the September quarter to be up 1.3% year to date. The June quarter result was revised from a fall of 0.3% to a rise of 0.1%. It’s a solid result, and on the breakdown we see engineering rising 3.5% to a record high quarterly level while building (residential and non-residential) rose by a subdued 1.5%.
Wait a minute. We’re supposed to be seeing a decline in mining capex (engineering) and a recovery in the housing market (building). What gives?
With all the talk of the “end of the mining boom”, we must remember the LNG capex boom is still in progress and has a while to run yet. Commonwealth Bank economists thus suggest the decline in net resource sector spend will not be as sharp as many have been led to believe, albeit there will be a net decline and CBA suggests the peak will be reached sometime in the second half of 2013.
So far the housing “recovery” has been most notable (notwithstanding house prices) in rising building approvals figures. It takes time to move from approval to construction, so CBA suggests a building recovery is as yet forthcoming in the data. (Don’t forget these are end-September numbers and we’re almost in December).
The strong construction number did little to spark up a still soggy Bridge Street yesterday, where reasons to be cheerful seem to be absent at present. On the subject of mining capex, more will be revealed today with the release of the September quarter private sector capex and capex intentions numbers.
It looks like everyone who wanted to square up on Wall Street ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday did so by lunch time in New York last night, with the indices rising initially, dipping sharply mid-session and recovering to the death on light trade. US markets are closed tonight and Friday night sees a half-day session on stock and commodities markets, while bond markets and banks will be closed.
There was nevertheless a rash of US economic data to absorb last night.
The Chicago Fed national activity index fell to minus 0.18 in October from plus 0.18 in September when economists had expected plus 0.10. The Chicago PMI had hit its strongest level in two years in October at 65.9 but this month has fallen back to 63, albeit ahead of estimates of 59.
New durable goods orders fell 2.0% in October having risen 4.1% in September, but beating estimates of a 2.2% fall. Aircraft orders make this data point lumpy, nevertheless, so if we look at the “core capital goods” component, which excludes transport and Pentagon spending, orders fell 1.2% in October having fallen 1.4% in September.
Consumer sentiment, as measured by Michigan Uni, has risen to 75.1 from 73.2 at the end of October but remains below September’s 77.5. This increase contradicts the similar Conference Board measure published earlier in the week, which recorded a fall.
Another mixed bag, although all up the data was considered by the markets to be more positive than negative. If that is the case, it also means expectations of tapering shift to sooner rather than later.
Yesterday a Bank of Japan board member suggested publicly that policy could be eased further if the Japanese economic recovery remained tentative. The yen subsequently fell to a six-month low against the greenback, and the US dollar index is up 0.1% to 80.74. Gold was little changed last night at US$1240.50/oz but the Aussie is continuing its RBA-inspired slide, having fallen another 0.6% to US$0.9080.
Those tapering expectations were blamed for a weak night in London for base metals, although one presumes a bit of pre-US holiday squaring was also a driver. All metals fell around 1%.
An increase in apparent Chinese energy demand in October after a fall in September, as measured by an independent source, helped Brent crude to rise US69c to US$111.58/bbl while another increase in weekly US inventories, and holiday squaring, saw West Texas fall US$1.46 to US$92.22/bbl. That Brent-WTI spread continues to widen.
Spot iron ore rose US10c to US$136.00/t.
The SPI Overnight rose 12 points or 0.2%.
So it's private sector capex data locally today, along with another handful of mid-cap AGMs. All US markets are closed tonight.
Rudi will appear on Sky Business today at noon.
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