FYI | Sep 12 2014
By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena
I like to question the ruling logic that goads the herd, or at the very least stimulate independent thinking. There's a big difference between playing market momentum as a short term trader and trying to figure out what the best asset purchases are for longer term investing.
Since 2012 I maintain my own feed of quotes, comments, responses and market insights via Twitter. Not everyone is on Twitter, which explains the requests to make my Twitter items also available through the newsfeed on the FNArena website.
Usually I combine all Tweets from the week past in one weekly story. Below are my Tweets from the week past. Enjoy.
Investors can follow me on Twitter via @filapek
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– Citi makes bold call: RBA to ignore latest employment data: "even the ABS probably doesn't believe it" – government tightening showing up?
– Shock and Horror! Macquarie cuts Sept 2015 'fair value' target ASX200 by 2% to 5876. Still implies 10.8% return, of which 4.9% div #ausbiz
– Citi repeats call for bottom in met #coal prices. Investors should expect higher prices in years ahead #ausbiz
– Overnight: US #equities lacklustre. #Oil recovers. #Gold down. Base #metals down. #ironore down US30c to US$81.90/t. A$ below US91c #ausbiz
– UBS has found a fact that will surprise many: Qantas (QAN) has outperformed the broader market this year. Every dog its moment..? #ausbiz
– Remarkable: CIMB also cut #nickel price forecasts by double digit percentages. Clearly, less upside than previously assumed… #ausbiz
– CIMB also further cut price forecasts thermal coal to US$75/t and US$85/t FY15-FY16 but sees signs of tightening "medium term" #ausbiz
– It's a new trend too: CIMB cuts #ironore price forecasts by double digit percentages to US$90/t next year and to US$85/t in 2016 #ausbiz
– It's now officially a trend: CIMB initiates coverage of Healthscope with Add rating and $2.75 price targe. All about long term trend #ausbiz
– Overnight: US #equities up (it's a yo-yo). #Oil down, Brent US$98/bbl. #Gold down. Base #metals mixed. #ironore down US$1 to US$82.20/t
– Dennis Gartman says he's uncomfortable with US #equities; does not like the way the market has traded in past two weeks #investing
– Goldman Sachs retains US$80/t #ironore forecast 2015, apply updated assumptions cost deflation by lowering 2016-17 forecasts to US$79/78/t
– The outlook for #equities is now dependent on US interest rate expectations. Expect more volatility… soon http://goo.gl/iw5fiy
– Deutsche Bank lifts ASX200 targets to 5850 (prev. 5700) for End 2014, to 6200 (prev. 5900) mid-2015, 6400 by end-2015 #ausbiz
– Deutsche Bank thinks Oz Banks "look OK", upgrade to mild Overweight. Retains Overweight Energy stocks. Also corrects Underweight High PE
– Deutsche Bank notes industrial earnings in Oz are expected to grow ~10%pa over the next two years. "This looks largely achievable" #ausbiz
– Deutsche Bank does not believe stronger USD strength reason to get negative equities.It means softer oil prices, positive terms of trade
– Citi analysts highlight amongst #ironore stocks only #Fortescue (FMG) -its favourite- generates cash at this price, and only just #ausbiz
– New price forecasts from Macquarie assume #ironore's annual averages to remain in the US$85-95/t range to 2020 #ausbiz
– Macquarie calls it: long-expected displacement cycle happening both earlier and more aggressively in #ironore; cuts price forecasts #ausbiz
– Overnight action: US #equities down. #Oil stable. #Gold stable. Base #metals down. #ironore down 0.5%, now at US$83.2/t (ouch!). A$ US92.04c
– Gluskin Sheff's Rosenberg: be it #bonds, #equities or #commodities: investors seem in selling mode. Then again, nothing is cheap $ausbiz
– Macquarie remains bull on global #equities given the lack of returns and rising risks in bond markets. Favours US and China #ausbiz
– Goldman Sachs believes market is pricing GWA Group at peak valuation on peak profits. Downgrade to Sell. Price target cut to $2.55 #ausbiz
– Goldman Sachs believes Blackmores shares have run too hard. Downgrade to Neutral. Price target $32.85 #ausbiz
– Macquarie declares "This time is different". Healthcare stocks usually outperform during recessions. May keep outperforming in rising market
– Citi predicts metals and mining equities will tread water over the next three months. Suggests investors should buy the dips #ausbiz
– Citi lifts S&P500 target to 2100 by mid next year, retains 2000 target for end 2014. Suggests consensus EPS estimates are too low #ausbiz
–#China steel sector exporting more and more in 2014, reports consultant MEPS. Estimates 60% of production increases now goes abroad #ausbiz
– UBS added to Portfolio Aurizon, Bluescope, FBU, GMG, Santos, Sonic. Removed Amcor, CSL, Dulux, Fortescue, Scentre Group, Transurban #ausbiz
– UBS strategists cautious on near-term prospects #equities. Reduced #mining to Neutral, increased #energy to Overweight #ausbiz
– Friday: US #equities up. #Oil down. #Gold stable. Base #metals mixed. #ironore down 0.8% to US$83.6/t. A$ US93.64c #ausbiz
– Don't panic and don't believe it either, argues Danske Bank, Friday's non-farm payrolls outcome was simply too bad to be true #investing
You can add my regular Tweets on Twitter via @filapek
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