Commodities | Sep 12 2006
By Greg Peel
JP Morgan is the latest in a long line of investment banks making upward revisions to metal price forecasts in order to play some level of catch up with spot prices. Zinc, copper and nickel prices have all been revised upward while the gold price has been slightly lowered.
Zinc has been increased by 11% in 2006 to US$1.37/lb and by 12% in 2007 to US$1.04/lb. The spot price is currently US$1.50/lb.
Copper has been increased by 14% in 2006 to US$3.03/lb and by 15% in 2007 to US$2.17/lb. The spot price is currently US$3.41/lb.
Nickel has been increased by 23% in 2006 to US$9.56/lb and by 19% in 2007 to US$6.80/lb. The spot price is currently US$13.25/lb.
The broker does warn that when stainless steel price rose significantly 18 months ago, the reduction in the amount of nickel used in production caused a sharp price decline, and this is occurring again.
The analysts have moved their second half 2006 gold price down from US$660/oz to US$652.50. Iron ore and energy prices remain unchanged.
The price upgrades have not affected any major moves in target price for resource stocks. In fact, the only moves have been slight downward revisions. The majors stay put, while gold miners and lesser base metal miners see slight downward adjustments, the latter despite earnings forecast increases.
(Monday’s Weekly Insights already pointed out that commodity price forecasts were being raised again by major brokerages. See also previous stories over the past ten days).