ABARE Delivers Predicted Minerals Price Increases

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By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck

Earnings from Australia’s commodity exports are forecast to rise by 14% to $140bn in fiscal 2007, the Canberra-based Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE) has predicted in the September update of the Bureau’s Australian commodities forecasts.

ABARE estimates the total value of Australia’s minerals and energy exports will amount to circa $108bn for the current fiscal year, a rise of 18% from $92bn in FY06.

The Bureau says the price outlook across mineral resources remains positive, reflecting continued strong world demand and modest growth only in supply. As such, the Bureau predicts further price increases for many mineral commodities, including iron ore, gold, aluminium, nickel, copper and zinc.

In addition to higher prices, the volume of Australian mineral resources exports, in aggregate, is forecast to rise markedly, the Bureau said.
 
In the farm sector, export earnings are forecast to be around $28.3bn, a rise of 2.1% from fiscal 2006. Agricultural commodities for which export earnings are forecast to increase this year include wheat, rice, wine, live cattle and cheese, ABARE said.

For farm commodities as a whole, the index of unit export returns is forecast to rise slightly this year following a marginal decline in 2005-06.

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