Australia | Apr 06 2009
By Chris Shaw
The Australian employment situation continues to become more tenuous as the ANZ Job Ads data for March showed a further decline in total ads of 8.5%, bringing the annual decline to a severe 44.6%. In trend terms the fall was almost as sharp, the numbers down 7.5% to be 43.6% lower than this time last year.
Both classes of job ads recorded declines for the month, with newspaper ads down 6.6% and internet ads falling 8.6%. While the former is an improvement on the 25.2% drop recorded in February, ANZ head of Australian economics Warren Hogan notes this category is still down 53.4% in year-on-year terms and reflects falls in most states and territories, the exceptions being the Australian Capital Territory and Northern Territory.
In total newspaper job ads are down 61% since November of 2007. The sector is approaching the 70% decline of the 1990’s recession, though as Hogan points out this time the adjustment is happening at a faster pace than was the case in that downturn when it took 35 months against 16 months this time around.
On the internet side job ads are now down 44% lower than 12 months ago, while in trend terms the decline is 42.8% from March of last year. Hogan notes when combined with the fall in newspaper ads, this represents the lowest rate of growth for job ads in the history of the series.
Queensland and Western Australia are experiencing the most severe falls in job ads, Hogan pointing out this means the previous two-speed nature of the Australian economy is now disappearing. The disappointing aspect of this is the convergence between the states is happening via economic weakness rather than the previously weaker states catching up.
According to Hogan the latest job ad numbers are at a level consistent with rising unemployment over the coming year, with signs of this expected this week when the bank expects the latest employment numbers will show a decline in employment of 33,000, pushing unemployment to a four and a half year high of 5.5%.
Post the numbers Hogan has revised his Australian economic growth forecasts and now expects a contraction in GDP this year of 1.0%, which should be enough to see unemployment trend above 8.0% over the course of 2010.