FYI | May 08 2009
By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck
Technical analysts at Barclays Capital have added their views to the emerging stream of positive market comments these past few weeks. The analysts have been positive about immediate prospects for risky assets in general and consider equity markets as the obvious reflection of increased investor risk appetite.
The analysts retain a positive view for equities for both Q2 and Q3 this year and believe this should also positively reflect on prices of commodities (risky asset number one).
They have drawn some lessons from history and report today data from the past 45 years suggest further share market gains should be forthcoming. This supports their positive view for share markets in Q2 and Q3.
Maybe the most powerful bullish “evidence” to date comes from the strong monthly returns share markets recorded in March and April 2009. The past two months the S&P500 in the US has advanced +8.5% and +9.4%, respectively with the analysts pointing out, since 1962 a monthly gain of 8% or more after a market decline has signaled “an important cyclical bear market low” has been reached.
So why would this time be any different?
