Australia | May 18 2009
By Chris Shaw
With Australia’s unemployment rate trending higher the numbers reported in the March quarter Clarius Skills Index report are no great surprise, showing for the first time in three years the gap between skilled labour demand and supply has closed to the extent the total number of vacant skilled positions is fewer than the number of skilled unemployed persons.
According to the recruitment company’s findings, the economic downturn has seen not only a weaker labour market but also weaker job vacancy numbers, with its March quarter survey showing there were 3,267,000 professional and trade vacancies but 3,277,000 people available to fill them.
Those jobs with the highest level of skill shortage were chefs, metal trades and hairdressers, while the sectors most directly affected by the recession having the highest levels of excess workers to available jobs. As evidence of this the survey indicates there were 133,700 unemployed professionals, associate professionals and tradespeople in the March quarter, but only 123,900 vacant positions across these groups.
The trend appears to be worsening as in the March quarter the survey showed seven out of 19 industries with a higher number of unemployed workers than positions, this against just four in the December quarter survey. The greatest change occurred in the tradespeople sector, with the index for this sector falling from 103.7 in the December quarter to 100.3 at the end of March and reflecting both the housing slowdown and weaker discretionary spending by households.
Also badly hit has been the accounting profession, as the survey shows there are now around 3,000 skilled accountants unable to find suitable positions, the worst outcome since 2003 when there were around 4,000 unemployed accountants and auditors.
Chefs appear most secure in terms of being able to secure a job as the sector index here is at 108, though Clarius notes this is down from better than 112 in September of last year. In the company’s view further falls are likely as the weaker economy sees consumers cut back further on discretionary spending.
Health professionals remain in a good situation with the March quarter reading of 102.6 showing there remains a shortage of skilled labour, while the news is not so good in the marketing and advertising and business and information sectors given readings of 97.4 and 97.6 respectively. For the former it is management positions in particular coming under pressure, while the downturn in accounting has seen salaries come down in the order of 10-15% from last year.
In the computer sector there has been a significant drop in the amount of contract work being undertaken, while the building and engineering sectors are seeing significant variations in demand across the states given the project-related nature of the work.
Overall, the survey shows businesses have scaled back their recruitment levels heavily as the economy has slowed down, with some such as government departments electing simply to not fill positions of those who retire or leave to pursue careers elsewhere.
The fact the labour market is now more balanced leads the company to suggest employers now have a much better choice with respect to who they wish to hire, while the greater competition for positions should limit wage growth. On the plus side, even allowing for the change in conditions, Clarius suggests employees with good skill sets should have little trouble in finding work as demand for such skills shold remain solid through the downturn.
Looking forward Clarius suggests the fall in employment in Australia in the current half year is likely to be around 1.1%, with a further 1.2% fall forecast for the 2009/10 financial year. This implies as many as 50,000 skilled workers out of jobs in 2010.
Recruitment company Clarius specialises in permanent, contract and temporary positions for white collar workers.