Australia | Dec 07 2009
By Chris Shaw
Australia’s economic recovery remains on track according to the latest ANZ Job Advertisements data, the numbers for November showing a 5.2% increase in combined internet and newspaper ads for the month to an average of 140,658 per week. The data compares to a 1.7% fall recorded in October and means total job ads are now 12.3% higher than the cyclical low recorded in July of this year, though they remain 34.2% lower than in November of last year.
Newspaper ads led the gains for the month and increased by 8.3% to an average of 9,530 per week, reversing the 1.4% fall seen in October. Total newspaper job ads remain 18.7% lower than a year ago. In trend terms the number of newspaper ads rose 2.3%, which is the sixth consecutive month of trend growth.
Western Australia recorded the largest gain at 18.4%, while double-digit increases were also seen in Victoria, the Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory. Only Queensland experienced a fall for the month, registering a decline of 4.4% in newspaper ads.
Job ads on the internet were 5.0% higher for November, putting the average at 131,128 jobs per week, though this remains 35.1% lower than this time last year. In trend terms the outcome was similar, the 1.5% gain for the month leaving total ads 36.6% lower than in November of last year.
Today’s data leads ANZ acting chief economist Warren Hogan to suggest total job ads are now well past their trough given the four months of trend growth recorded since July. The stronger newspaper ad numbers are especially positive as Hogan note this sector tends to lead overall job ads.
In Hogan’s view, the trend will eventually translate into higher employment growth and when taken with other indicators implies the recovery from the recent downturn continues to gather pace. As evidence of this, employment growth is also trending higher after contracting in the first half of the year, with the unemployment rate stabilising in the high 5.0% range.
Hogan sees this as good news for both households and businesses, though the recovery remains weak as much of the improvement in jobs has been in part-time and not full-time positions and total hours worked have only recently shown signs of stabilising.
Near-term he expects employment growth through summer, and if total hours worked improves more of the jobs are likely to be of the full-time variety. Even allowing for this, Hogan expects the growth in the size of the labour force will still see unemployment trend higher, with a rate of around 6.5% in the middle of 2010 seen as likely.