In Case You Missed It – BC Extra Upgrades & Downgrades – 20-02-26

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            [4] => ((CSL))
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            [6] => ((JBH))
            [7] => ((NWS))
            [8] => ((REA))
            [9] => ((ORG))
            [10] => ((ACL))
            [11] => ((AEL))
            [12] => ((ASK))
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            [7] => NWS
            [8] => REA
            [9] => ORG
            [10] => ACL
            [11] => AEL
            [12] => ASK
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            [16] => RWC
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This story features AMP LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AMP
The company is included in ASX100, ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

A summary of the highlights from Broker Call Extra updates throughout the week past.

Broker Rating Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)

Upgrade

AMP LIMITED ((AMP)) Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Although AMP’s 1H26 headline earnings were flat versus consensus and -2.8% below Jarden, AMP benefitted from a lower tax rate and a strong Corporate result, with core divisions significantly below expectations.

Within platforms, net inflows were offset by a softer revenue margin. For the Bank, Jarden has reservations about AMP’s strategy and it is difficult for the broker to see a credible pathway for AMP to compete given its weak deposit franchise and competition from scaled peers.

However, following a weak half, Jarden believes value is emerging at the price. Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral. Target falls to $1.65 from $1.85.

AURIZON HOLDINGS LIMITED ((AZJ)) Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Aurizon delivered 1H26 Core NPAT of $237m, an 8% beat to consensus, driven by improved Coal and a sharp turnaround in Bulk earnings.

Bulk EBIT more than doubled y/y to $49m, marking the first period of underlying growth in around two years, while Coal EBIT of $192m was well ahead of expectations and de-risked FY26 forecasts.

FY26 EBITDA guidance was maintained at $1,680-1,750m and appears conservative, with Jarden lifting FY26 Core EPS by 3.5% and incorporating a higher circa 90% payout ratio and additional $100m on-market buyback.

The broker highlights improving earnings visibility and lower capex intensity as supportive of stronger free cash flow from FY27.

Jarden upgrades to Overweight from Neutral and raises the target to $3.90 from $3.45.

BRAVURA SOLUTIONS LIMITED ((BVS)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Canaccord Genuity, on further contemplation of the Bravura Solutions first half results, upgrades to Buy from Hold and raises the target to $2.73 from $2.00.

Strong cost discipline and improved customer sentiment are  paving the way for a stronger FY26-27 than the broker had expected and revenue estimates are upgraded by 5-6% while cash EBITDA is raised 19-31% across the forecast period.

Earlier, Canaccord Genuity noted Bravura Solutions posted a strong beat across all major revenue and earnings lines, supported by lower cash earnings.

The key for the shares to trade higher should be be the new CEO’s commentary on costs into 2H26, noting some further small headcount reductions seen over the half.

BWP TRUST ((BWP)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

BWP Trust’s 1H26 result came in slightly ahead of expectations, supported by stronger property income rather than any change in distribution guidance. Funds from operations were 9.7c, above both Jarden and consensus, while FY26 DPU guidance was held at 19.41c.

The analyst highlights occupancy at a cyclical low of 96.7% but expects improvement towards around 99% by the end of FY26, alongside an elevated FY26 capex program of -$60-70m which is expected to be accretive once projects complete.

The broker lifts FFO forecasts by 3.1% for FY26, 1.3% for FY27 and 1.2% for FY28 and upgrades the stock to Neutral from Underweight and raises the target price to $3.95 from $3.85.

CSL LIMITED ((CSL)) Buy by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0

CSL’s FY26 guidance is in trouble, Canaccord Genuity suggests. The profit outlook is surprisingly maintained after missing 1H26 forecasts. Themes include consecutive misses in immunoglobulins and albumin.

Bright spots exist in the broader portfolio but remain nascent contributors unlikely to offset structural weaknesses in the short term, Canaccord notes.

Behring’s segment contribution was down -7% Seqirus and Vifor both did better than expected but remain tertiary considerations.

CSL maintained FY26 guidance, implying an unprecedented degree of 1H/2H phasing. Canaccord is reviewing its estimates. Buy and $225 target, for now.

HOMECO DAILY NEEDS REIT ((HDN)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Moelis.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Commenting after interim results, Moelis says HomeCo Daily Needs REIT continues to deliver strong operating metrics, with 6.2% leasing spreads and 4.0% like-for-like net operating income (NOI) growth.

The broker trims its medium-term EPS forecast on higher floating rates, partly offset by lower lending margins.

Moelis notes 1H26 FFO of 4.4cpu and a dividend of 4.3cpu, with occupancy above 99%. Gearing of 35.2% implies to the broker ongoing asset recycling to fund the $650m development pipeline.

The analyst sees the stock trading attractively at a -17% NTA discount and 6.2% implied cap rate.

The broker’s target rises to $1.46 from $1.44 and the rating is upgraded to Buy from Hold.

JB HI-FI LIMITED ((JBH)) Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

JB Hi-Fi posted a first half result that was better than feared and Jarden finds a lot to like in the outlook. While in the second half business has slowed, the broker expects this will be short lived as there are a number of catalysts ahead.

Jarden expects minimal impact on demand from inflation given the essential nature of PCs, which will be affected. Rating is upgraded to Overweight from Neutral.

The broker also notes the strength of The Good Guys result, with steady share in a competitive market. Target is reduced to $88.90 from $96.80.

NEWS CORPORATION ((NWS)) Upgrade to Buy from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden upgrades News Corp to Buy from Overweight, target price reduced to $46.80 from $48.60, incorporating a roughly -10% cut to the REA Group ((REA)) valuation.

At first glance, the analyst notes earnings (EBITDA) in 2Q26 came in 6% ahead of consensus, reflecting a strong quarterly performance. Dow Jones maintained solid momentum, while Professional Information Services revenue rose 12%.

Amid recent AI concerns, the broker highlights News’ proprietary data assets and real time content as a competitive moat against AI related disruption.

Near term EPS forecasts are lifted by 5% to 7%, largely driven by a stronger AUD.

ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED ((ORG)) Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Origin Energy has upgraded FY26 energy markets EBITDA guidance by 6.5%. Jarden notes the highlight of the interim result was strong electricity gross profit which beat estimates.

The broker suspects the market was concerned the low volatility during the half could translate into lower earnings but a combination of higher customer tariffs, lower net pool costs, lower green scheme costs and lower solar FiT drove a beat to expectations.

Jarden increases FY26 energy markets EBITDA estimates by 5.8%.

The company has acknowledged lower wholesale electricity prices will negatively affect electricity earnings in FY27, but the broker expects this will be more than offset by lower coal costs and increased battery earnings.

Rating is upgraded to Overweight from Neutral. Target rises to $12.00 from $11.65.

Downgrade

AUSTRALIAN CLINICAL LABS LIMITED ((ACL)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0

 Australian Clinical Labs posted first half results that missed Canaccord Genuity’s forecasts. The broker suspects the miss, and the downgrade to FY26 guidance, primarily relate to marginal share losses.

Underlying EBIT guidance has been downgraded by -3.5%, further exacerbated by additional operating expenditure stemming from the FWC review of gender undervaluation.

The pathology demand environment is not strong enough to allow the company’s operating model and strategy to be differentiated from listed competitors and drive a re-rating, in the broker’s opinion.

Rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy. Target is reduced to $2.40 from $3.85.

AMPLITUDE ENERGY LIMITED ((AEL)) Downgrade to Overweight from Buy by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden downgrades Amplitude Energy to Overweight from Buy with a lower target of $2.67 from $3.40 post the failure of the Elanora exploration well.

The broker removes -36cps of risked value and cuts the risk weighting for the remaining Otway exploration campaign to 35% from 70%.

Elanora’s removal has no material impact on cash flows, with net profit after tax from FY27 slightly higher due to lower capex.

Attention now turns to the Isabella well, expected to take 14 to 18 days to drill, which the broker sees as pivotal to unlocking campaign upside.

ABACUS STORAGE KING ((ASK)) Downgrade to Overweight from Buy by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

After further analysis of Abacus Storage King’s interim results, Jarden lowers its target to $1.60 from $1.65 and maintains an Overweight rating.

A summary of the broker’s initial research follows.

On first inspection, Jarden notes Abacus Storage King’ 1H26 result was slightly softer than expected at the earnings line.

Funds from operations came in at 3.12c versus 3.4c for Jarden and 3.3c consensus, with established portfolio RevPAM growth of 1.5% considered weak relative to portfolio quality, while occupancy eased to 90.5% and WACR to 5.42%.

FY26 distribution guidance was maintained at 6.2c, in line with both Jarden and consensus expectations.

Jarden highlights potential investor focus on funding costs and internalisation progress, amid shifting rate expectations and sector M&A activity.

COMPUTERSHARE LIMITED ((CPU)) Downgrade to Underweight from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden downgrades Computershare to Underweight from Overweight and lowered the target price to $30.00 from $39.00.

Computershare is expected to benefit from an improving capital markets backdrop, but the broker argues tokenisation represents a material structural threat to the transfer agent franchise over the next five to ten years.

The analyst expects platform centric models pursued by exchanges and depositories to prevail over issuer sponsored tokenisation, creating a credible pathway for transfer agent functions to be absorbed into DLT infrastructure.

This is seen as a direct risk to Issuer Services and Share Plan segments, which accounted for 57% of FY25 earnings (EBIT), even though near term earnings forecasts are lifted by around 2% on a cyclical upswing.

PEEL MINING LIMITED ((PEX)) Downgrade to Hold from Speculative Buy by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Peel Mining has entered into a transformational $214m Scheme of Arrangement, says Canaccord Genuity, under which its Cobar neighbour, Aeris Resources ((AIS)) will acquire 100% of the company.

Canaccord Genuity sees this arrangement as a strategic Cobar consolidation.

The broker notes consideration of 0.3363 Aeris shares plus NewCo stock, implying 19c per share for copper assets and 4.4c for demerged assets. Overall, this represents a 46% premium to the pre-announcement price, highlight the analysts.

Downgrade to Hold from Speculative Buy. Target of 20c retained.

RELIANCE WORLDWIDE CORP. LIMITED ((RWC)) Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden has downgraded Reliance Worldwide to Neutral from Overweight and cut its target to $3.80 from $4.47 following a weaker 1H26 result and what the broker views as elevated execution risk.

While the Americas performance was relatively resilient, APAC and EMEA were weaker as volumes and manufacturing shifts weighed on earnings with pricing expected to offset tariffs as supporting 2H26 visibility, although copper remains a headwind.

The broker believes the strategic pivot away from copper and brass towards stainless steel, with copper targeted to be non-material by FY29, introduces material risk around manufacturing complexity, channel adoption and price differential.

Jarden lowers FY26 EPS forecast by -1.6% and FY27 by -3.2%.

TEMPLE & WEBSTER GROUP LIMITED ((TPW)) Downgrade to Overweight from Buy by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Temple & Webster’s 1H26 result missed on earnings, with EBITDA around -7% below consensus and net profit down around -28%, as heavier discounting offset slightly better sales, Jarden explains.

The broker notes sales momentum improved through the half, estimating growth accelerated to 22% in Nov and Dec, while 2H26 year-to-date revenue is tracking around 20% higher y/y.

Margins are the key issue, with 1H26 EBITDA margin of 3.6% below expectations, driven by a roughly -100bp miss in delivered margins to around 30.5% as the online retailers funded more aggressive promotions.

Jarden downgrades the stock to Overweight from Buy and its target price is cut to $10.90 from $19.90, with FY26 to FY28 EPS forecasts reduced by -21% to -33% to reflect higher macro and execution risk.

TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED ((TWE)) Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Treasury Wine Estates pre released 1H26 earnings (EBITS) around 3% above market expectations and announced a settlement with RNDC (Republic National Distributing Company.

Jarden estimates the RNDC outcome represents a net -US$65m cash flow drag in 2H26 from product buyback, which should unwind into FY27.

The broker points to early signs of improvement in the US, with Nielsen wine data positive y/y in January, and notes luxury wine trends have also begun to stabilise globally.

Jarden downgrades the stock to Neutral  from Overweight and target price cut to $5.40 from $5.60, reflecting lower FY27 and FY28 earnings forecasts.

Price Target Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)

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