Australia | Feb 19 2010
By Chris Shaw
To better track spending trends in the Australian economy the Commonwealth Bank has developed a Business Sales Indicator, which monitors the value of credit and debit card transactions processed through the bank's merchant facilities throughout Australia.
This includes transactions made at traditional retail establishments including supermarkets, clothing stores and cafes and restaurants, while also covering businesses such as utilities, professional and government services, wholesalers and airlines. To better gauge the direction and changes in spending across the economy the Indicator is tracked in trend terms.
For January the Indicator rose by 0.1% in trend terms, a result broadly in line with the results recorded in December, which was the weakest rate of growth for 14 months. When measures to two decimal places the Indicator showed an increase in trend growth to 0.14% from 0.11%, which is the first gain in the pace of growth since July of 2009.
While the Indicator has expanded in trend terms for 14 months, CommSec chief economist Craig James notes the actual pace of growth continues to ease since the middle of last year, as monthly trend growth was around 0.7% in both June and July last year.
As evidence of this the January data show over the past year the Indicator has risen 5.4%, which is below the 5.7% annual growth pace recorded in December and the 5.8% gain posted in November, which was a 21-month high. The current growth rate is slightly below official retail trade series data as recorded by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
The January data show the value of spending transactions fell in six of 20 industries, better than the eight declines recorded in December. The weakest results came in the Mail Order and Telephone Order providers, while Repair Services, Professional Services and Service Providers post the strongest numbers. All states except Victoria recorded positive monthly trend growth in January.
According to James the Indicator's seasonally adjusted results are pointing to a flat retail trade result for Australia for January, as the indicator has closely tracked ABS retail trade data since August of 2009.
