Weekly Reports | Feb 26 2010
By Greg Peel
UK economists are expecting that tonight's first revision of fourth quarter GDP will bring welcome news for Britain, coming in the wake of anticipation the Bank of England may have to reintroduce quantitative easing measures. The first estimate came in at a disappointing 0.1% growth but economists are hoping the first revision will bring the figure closer to the 0.4% originally forecast.
The same is not true in the US, where all eyes will be on its first revision of fourth quarter GDP tonight. The first estimate of 5.7% growth was well-received by Wall Street at the time, but it was also met with a deal of scepticism from economists. Thus economists are anticipating a potentially dramatic downward revision tonight. Given Wall Street's current anxiety over economic recovery or lack thereof, a steep revision might just send investors packing.
Also of interest in the US tonight will be January existing home sales and the fortnightly Michigan Uni consumer confidence measure. The latter will be held up against this week's shocking Conference Board confidence number, which was also met with some scepticism.
As we move into next week it is an employment week in the US, with the private ADP number providing a hint on Wednesday of the official unemployment stats on Friday. It's also a week for manufacturing, services, and construction industry data in the US and across the globe. US personal income and spending, along with vehicle sales and same-store retail sales will provide further evidence of whether or not the US consumer has gone on strike. The Fed's anecdotal Beige Book will also draw attention.
In Australia, the half-year result season ends today (hooray!) so next week will see a drop off in intensity and a lot of stock analysts heading for what they would consider a well-earned break. But it's a big week on the economic front because on Wednesday we learn the one, the only, never to be revised Australian fourth quarter GDP result. Interestingly, the RBA has to make its monthly rate decision the day before. Preview perhaps? Most economists expect the 25bps hike we didn't get this month we'll get on Tuesday, which probably means we won't. But the numbers are hard to ignore.
Australia also sees building approvals, retail sales and trade balance data next week.
It's also rate decision week for the UK and the EU, but chances of a hike there are zero to nil. Canada also has to make a rate decision, which is interesting given Australia and Canada are almost twins, but Canada is stuck on 0.25%. While Australia's big customers are in Asia, Canada's dominant customer is just south of the border.
For a wrap of Friday night's offshore movements and a more comprehensive preview of next week's events, please refer to "The Monday Report", published each Monday morning. For all economic data release dates, ex-div dates and times and other relevant information, please refer to the FNArena Calendar.
