Australia | Mar 09 2010
By Chris Shaw
Further evidence the Australian economy continues to perform solidly was delivered today with the ANZ Job Advertisements series showing strong gains for February. Total job ads rose 19.1% for the month, which more than reversed the 8.1% fall recorded in January.
The February data mean total job ads of 159,778 per week are 27.5% higher than the seasonal trough recorded in July of last year, though they remain 42.6% below the all-time peak recorded in April of 2008.
ANZ Bank chef economist Warren Hogan notes newspaper ads grew by 13.1% for the month to 9,947 per week, with all states except Queensland posting gains. The result is a solid turnaround from the 16.6% fall recorded in January in seasonally adjusted terms, with newspaper job ads now 14.9% higher than year ago levels.
In trend terms newspaper job ads gained 1.1%, the weakest rate of growth since June last year, but in annual trend growth rate terms they are now 7% higher than February last year. This is the first positive annual trend growth reading since December of 2007.
Internet job ads increased by 19.6% in February to an average of 149,831 per week, Hogan noting the result is 3.3% lower than for February last year but almost 28% above the July 2009 cyclical low.
In Hogan's view the February numbers suggest the decline in job ads in January was likely a seasonal anomaly as the trend in total job ads continues to improve month on month from the cyclical lows of last year.
This is translating into solid employment growth, Hogan noting total employment in the Australian economy hit 10.966 million jobs in January. A total of 194,600 jobs have been added over the past five months, 96,000 of them being full-time positions.
At the same time, he points out a record 30.2% of all jobs are now part-time, meaning total aggregate hours worked across Australia is near year ago levels. In Hogan's view this implies a significant degree of spare capacity or under-employment given the potential for hours worked to increase.
Australian Bureau of Statistics figures seem to back up this view as the November 2009 survey of under-employment indicated 7.8% of the labour force was willing and able to work more hours than they were being given.
Hogan suggests forward indicators such as retail sales turnover and business sentiment look positive for more employment growth in the first half of 2010, though it is likely to be at a slower pace than has been seen in recent months.
The Australian labour force is now growing by an average of 20,000 per month so net job growth must match this to maintain the unemployment rate at its current 5.3%, an outcome Hogan expects can be achieved this month.