Weekly Reports | Aug 27 2010
By Greg Peel
We have reached a pivotal point in the market, it would seem, at which the debate between the slow, low US growth school and double dip school has reached neutral ground in stock market terms. While there are a few calls out there that suggest this market is primed for a rally given its capitulation, Wall Street still seems trigger-happy to the downside. And the local market simply looks undecided as I write.
How we perform next week will likely be determined by what happens tonight in the US. Consensus forecasts have the US second quarter GDP being revised down from 2.4% to 1.4% and the result should affect market direction. Fed chairman Ben Bernanke is also due to speak, and speculation has him providing anything from renewed forecast downgrades to notification of a step-up in quantitative easing.
No point in discussing – we'll know soon enough. Tonight also sees the second Michigan Uni consumer confidence survey for August and the UK also provides its first estimate of second quarter GDP.
It doesn't get any easier next week, which features global manufacturing index data and US unemployment.
Wednesday is manufacturing PMI day for Australia, China, the UK, EU and US. Next week the US will also learn monthly personal income and expenditure, the Case-Shiller house price index, the Chicago PMI, the Conference Board consumer confidence measure, construction spending, vehicle sales, chain store sales, pending home sales, factory orders and the services PMI, along with the private sector ADP unemployment on Wednesday and the official non-farm payroll number on the Friday.
It won't be a quiet week.
But thankfully, Tuesday marks the end of the torrid Australian reporting season. Local research then slows to a trickle as bleary-eyed stock analysts take holidays, shoot themselves, or just get drunk for a fortnight. Ah but next Wednesday sees the release of Australia's second quarter GDP.
We also have building approvals, the manufacturing PMI, private sector credit, the second quarter current account, and the monthly trade balance, to at least keep economists focused.
For a more comprehensive preview of next week's events, please refer to "The Monday Report", published each Monday morning. For all economic data release dates, ex-div dates and times and other relevant information, please refer to the FNArena Calendar.
