Commodities | Oct 01 2010
By Chris Shaw
Global steel industry consultant MEPS suggests steel prices may soon begin to slip as while the consultant's global price indicator was steady in September, industry trends are currently not so favourable and market conditions remain tough.
As MEPS notes, producers in markets such as the US and Canada have resorted to price hikes to try and stabilise the market after recent weakness, but delivery lead-times remain short and end-user demand is not expected to pick up until the spring of 2011.
While the Chinese market has been stronger, MEPS points out there remains some uncertainty given energy conservation directives from the government. While these measures could tighten supply in the final months of this year, end-user demand remains somewhat muted and export sales are declining as material is becoming more expensive to overseas customers.
For Japan the issue is the stronger yen, as MEPS notes this is threatening overseas sales of both steel and finished products. Export demand in key Asian markets for Japanese producers is also weakening and steel stocks in Japan are rising, which suggests limited scope for price gains.
Higher raw material costs have allowed Korean mills to maintain higher prices but MEPS notes demand in this market is also not particularly strong at present. Assuming input expenditure falls in the fourth quarter the consultant suggests a reversal in the price trend in this market is possible.
It is a similar situation in Taiwan as buyers appear to be waiting to see how selling values will develop in the final quarter of the year. MEPS also notes major domestic player CSC has indicated it will cut domestic list prices in October and November as it attempts to remain competitive against imported material.
While distributors in Eastern Europe are beginning to re-stock, transaction numbers in some markets are still suffering. MEPS expects a pick-up in in transactions in coming months, while the consultant also expects production cuts will support some price recovery going forward.
In Western Europe, MEPS expects producers will try and push through some small price improvements in coming weeks given low stocks and a lack of third country material. Successful increases may prove difficult however, as raw material costs are no longer soaring, which will work against any argument for price increases.
The trend in developing markets is towards increased price volatility according to MEPS, the consultant noting in the Russian Federation prices are expected to rise as shipments to domestic customers are showing signs of improvement.
In the Ukraine market trading conditions remain challenging, while in Turkey MEPS suggests conditions have also failed to live up to expectations. With construction activity set to resume in India and traders now starting to rebuild inventories, prices have been recently hiked, but as MEPS notes customers are currently not in a strong position to absorb these new figures. This suggests the price increases may not be sustainable.
Buying activity in the United Arab Emirates has been erratic in recent months and MEPS suggests this trend could continue into 2011. While foreign suppliers are lifting their quotes the group doesn't expect local stockists to make any big purchases for the next few months.
The South African market is showing few signs of improvement according to MEPS as inventory management has remained an issue. With re-stocking limited, prices have been relatively flat. In Brazil producers are attempting to discourage imported material by lowering selling figures to distributors. With some concerns the market is oversupplied, MEPS notes several buyers have moved to the sidelines for the time being.
Production remains weak in Mexico thanks to elevated inventory levels and MEPS notes this trend has caused local steelmakers and distributors to lower selling figures for some products.
