FYI | Jan 11 2011
(This story was originally published on 24th December, 2011).
By Greg Peel
The ASX will close at 2.10pm this afternoon ahead of the Christmas break while the US will take its day in lieu of Christmas being on a Saturday by being closed completely tonight.
It will be a shortened week in Australia next week with the ASX closed on both Monday and Tuesday to represent the lost Christmas and Boxing Day holidays. Friday next week will see the release of November private sector credit data along with the RP Data-Rismark house price index before the ASX again closes at 2.10pm ahead of New Year's Eve celebrations.
Traditionally Wall Street looks for a “Santa Rally” in the week between Christmas and New Year. It's not about Christmas joy and goodwill to all men, it's simply that the US works off a calendar fiscal year and so December 31 is the end of the trading year as well as the end of the quarter. Fund managers thus try to give their portfolio returns one last boost, and traders looking for Christmas bonuses are also inclined just to give things a little nudge.
Of course a Santa Rally presupposes nothing goes particularly wrong in the world in what is usually a fairly quiet week. And while it might be beaches and beer for an Australian market which has all but shut down, it's still business as usual in the US on the data front.
Monday begins with the Dallas Fed manufacturing index, Tuesday is loaded with the equivalent Richmond index, consumer confidence and the Case-Shiller house price index, while Thursday brings pending home sales and the Chicago PMI. The US Treasury will hold its last bond auctions of the year, with two, five and seven-year notes on offer between Monday and Wednesday.
Then it's on to 2011. The rule of thumb is that “how goes January, so goes the year”. Of course many adages have been shattered since the GFC, and we note that January 2009 was a shocker before the markets close 50% higher and January 2010 started with a bang before suddenly Europe blew up.
The ASX will be closed on the Monday, January 3, in lieu of missing out on New Year's Day. The usual monthly round of global manufacturing PMI data is spread over the Monday and Tuesday that week, with the US out on the Monday and Australia on the Tuesday. Throughout the rest of the week, the major global centres all release their services PMI results.
The first week of 2011 will go out with a bang on the Friday as the eurozone provides its final revision of third quarter GDP and the US releases its December unemployment data. On the Tuesday before, the Fed will release the minutes of its December monetary policy meeting.
In the following week, beginning January 10, it will be Australia's turn for unemployment data in a week which also includes November retail sales along with housing finance and the monthly trade balance.
The Fed will release its Beige Book on the Wednesday before the Friday brings the week's highlights of US CPI, industrial production and the all important December retail sales results. The Treasury will auction three and ten-year notes and thirty year bonds over the week and both the European Central bank and Bank of England will hold monetary policy meetings.
FNArena will be back on board on January 17. Have a wonderful break.
For all economic data release dates, dividend dates and other relevant information, please refer to the FNArena Calendar.
