Commodities | Oct 28 2011
– A stronger US dollar has been impacting on steel prices
– MEPS suggests greenback strength could impact on pattern of world trade
– Impact of stronger US currency anticipated to continue into 2012
By Chris Shaw
The average Hot Rolled Coil price for BRIC countries as calculated by steel industry consultant MEPS fell in October by US$75, a decline of 10% in month-on-month terms to US$633 per tonne.
Industry expert MEPS notes the fall is due almost entirely to currency exchange rate movements, in particular the strengthening of the US dollar against most major currencies earlier in the month.
MEPS suggests if the US dollar remains strong the pattern of trade in the world could change significantly. Imports could flood into North America, Japan, South Korea and several EU countries, with Russian and Chinese exports potentially the main beneficiaries.
A shortage of raw material is likely to restrict Indian export sales according to MEPS, while a weakening of the Brazilian Real could help domestic producers in that country restrict a surge in imports in the shorter-term.
While the US dollar later in the month has weakened slightly since the beginning of October, a strong US currency is likely to be a feature of world trade in 2012 in the view of MEPS.
This is likely to continue impacting on prices, as while the MEPS BRIC average price for benchmark Hot Rolled Coil has tracked Asian values closely over the past few years, a disconnect between the two has opened in the past month or so.
Asian average values are now almost US$50 per tonne above the BRIC figure, while the MEPS global average hot rolled selling price is near US$60 per tonne higher than the BRIC average.
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