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More Than Europe Driving Gold

Commodities | Nov 10 2011

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By Jonathan Barratt
 
Gold continues to remain firm. It is currently receiving a good lift on the back of the continued concerns in Europe. Two weeks ago we said the market is looking towards the EU Summit for a solution, and then last week we suggested that we needed to focus on the G20. Well this week the market is still concerned and it's buying Gold. We have not seen concrete evidence from the EU that the Sovereign Debt concern is under control and there is significant risk that the contagion i.e. liquidity crisis could spread to Eastern Europe. This is keeping the market bid to US 1800 resistance.

In addition to this, it appears that a focus may shift from the EU to the Middle East as the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is due to report on its findings for Iranian nuclear, or hopefully lack of nuclear, program. So far Israel has weighed in to the argument and if the report shows that Iran is processing nuclear fuels capable of producing nuclear arms then they are looking for an excuse for military intervention. This would be a last resort over trade sanctions however it is one that cannot be discounted.
 
With all this heightened focus on geopolitics to feed the market we have to remind ourselves that there is only a 6% differential surplus between the supply and demand for the metal. This could potentially move to a deficit situation exacerbating the move further. 

We are remaining bullish the metal.

Chart point:

Technically, the Gold market goes from strength to strength. It has just broken through resistance at US 1770 and traded to US 1800. As long as US 1770 remains uncompromised we can expect momentum will keep it well bid. The next hurdle is US 1800. If you are still long, stops can go in at US 1750. We are riding with the trade, however stops are in.
 

 
 
Produced by Jonathan Barratt direct from the trading desks of Commodity Broking Services, Barratt's Bulletin provides expert analysis of commodity markets, global indices and foreign exchange movements. Click here to take a no obligation 21-day trial to Barratt's or to learn more visit www.barrattsbulletin.com. Content included in this article is not by association necessarily the view of FNArena (see our disclaimer).

This report is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to buy or sell, or as a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, products, securities or investments. This report does not, and should not be construed as acting to, sponsor, advocate, endorse or promote products or any other products, securities or investments. This report does not purport to make any recommendations or provide any investment or other advice with respect to the purchase, sale or other disposition of products, securities or investments, including, without limitation, any advice to the effect that any related transaction is appropriate for any investment objective or financial situation of a prospective investor. A decision to invest in securities or investments should not be made in reliance on any of the statements in this report. Before making any investment decision, prospective investors should seek advice from their financial advisers, take into account their individual financial needs and circumstances and carefully consider the risks associated with such investment decision.

 

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