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A Break-Up For Oil

Commodities | Feb 09 2012

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By Jonathan Barratt
 
As mentioned last week the oil market has tracked sideways for most of the holiday period, and with and unplanned outage at an Alberta mineral sands plant in Canada it looks like the bulls will outweigh the bears. Production from the plant is likely to stop for two to three weeks and put a crimp on supply of oil to the US which should see the price of WTI pick up.
 
Adding weight to the move was news that Iran is imposing its own sanctions on oil exports to Europe and continued clashes between militants and the Government in Nigeria is adding investor concerns. In addition, the latest round of US Oil Inventories as reported by the API showed stockpiles fell by 4.5 million barrels last week, which if the data from EIA supports the same should help underpin further price rises for the commodity. We have turned bullish the commodity and are currently long at 98.90 with a stop at (95.70 well out of harms way).

For those that continue to follow the Brent WTI spread we suggested last week that it would head back to US15.00, it has since traded as high as US20.00 which may represent an intermediate high given the outage in Alberta and subsequent bounce in the WTI contract. Lets see how the dust settles in Alberta before making judgment as we feel continue news from Iran and Nigeria will keep Brent bid over WTI

Chart Point

Technically, as we have seen a solid bounce of support US96.00 (WTI) we have to give the bulls chance as we can conclude that we are back in the range and suggest a move back to US100.00 then US102.50. Momentum indicators have also turned bullish which supports the move higher. We have been bearish the market whilst it traded to a low of US96US95.44 however the bounce last nights puts a new spin on the market. We are bullish with stops in at US95.70.
 
 
 
 
Produced by Jonathan Barratt direct from the trading desks of Commodity Broking Services, Barratt's Bulletin provides expert analysis of commodity markets, global indices and foreign exchange movements. Click here to take a no obligation 21-day trial to Barratt's or to learn more visit www.barrattsbulletin.com. Content included in this article is not by association necessarily the view of FNArena (see our disclaimer).

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